Key Takeaways
- The FTC sent civil subpoenas to OpenAI and Anthropic on Oct. 15 in a consumer-protection probe, Axios reported.
- At the labs’ latest valuations, the stakes Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet hold in them add up to about $554 billion.
- A penalty would land on the labs, and (fortunately) all three investors have strong earnings growth without them.
- The bigger risk is the price the labs fetch when they go public, so Anthropic’s public S-1 is the next thing to watch.
The Federal Trade Commission is investigating OpenAI and Anthropic. Three of the market’s biggest stocks own large pieces of those labs: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG).
Axios broke the story: on Oct. 15, the FTC sent civil subpoenas to both labs in a probe of potential consumer-protection violations.
The next morning on CNBC’s Squawk Box (via Squawk Pod), Becky Quick asked AI czar Jay Clayton whether the FTC would vigorously enforce any wrongdoing it found. She also asked whether that could stop new models from being released.
His answer? “The short answer to your question, Becky, is yes, absolutely.”
He added that President Trump has told enforcers to apply the rules vigorously.
What the FTC wants
According to Axios’ source, each demand runs more than 50 pages and asks for:
- Documents on security incidents and safeguarding practices
- Marketing materials
- Privacy policies
The FTC also reportedly plans to make top AI executives testify and to send demands to other AI companies later. The probe follows several incidents in which unreleased models hacked websites or acted deceptively or aggressively in testing.
Over half a trillion dollars at stake
At the labs’ latest valuations, here’s what each company holds…
- Microsoft: about 27% of OpenAI. That should work out to roughly $228 billion, based on OpenAI’s $852 billion valuation in March. (Microsoft also committed $5 billion to Anthropic in late 2025.)
- Amazon: an Anthropic stake that Amazon’s quarterly report valued at $190.4 billion as of June 30.
- Alphabet: roughly 14% of Anthropic, according to court documents cited by Fortune. That’s about $135 billion at Anthropic’s $965 billion valuation.
Add $228 billion, $190 billion and $135 billion, and you get about $554 billion riding on two private companies that are now under federal investigation. (Of course, due to dilution, the number is likely a little different, but you get the general idea.)
Amazon is already reporting its exposure directly. Changes in the value of its Anthropic stake already show up in its results: $16.8 billion of pre-tax gains in Q1 2026 alone. Those gains can turn into losses just as easily.
The fine is the least of it
Any penalty would be paid by the labs themselves. Meanwhile, all three investors are growing their earnings quickly on their own. Amazon’s normalized EPS rose from $2.90 in fiscal 2023 to $7.17 in fiscal 2025, and analysts expect $13.26 for fiscal 2028…
Alphabet’s normalized EPS rose from $5.80 to $10.81 over the same three years, and analysts expect $18.02 for fiscal 2028…
And nothing in a stack of subpoenas should move those estimates.
But Clayton’s “yes” answered a question that also asked about stopping new models, and that matters beyond the obvious stakes. Anthropic has committed to spend more than $100 billion on Amazon’s chips and cloud over the next decade, and OpenAI has signed up to buy an additional $250 billion of Azure services. It’s pure speculation, but delayed model launches could slow how quickly that spending arrives.
The IPOs set the price
Anthropic has filed confidentially for its IPO, and OpenAI’s listing is reportedly expected next year. When those listings happen, they’ll reset the value of every one of these stakes. A federal investigation is exactly the kind of risk new investors will look for in a prospectus.
And we all know how investors are compensated for risk: With a lower price.
So those $500+ billion stakes could get marked down by the public markets.
Now, to be very clear, I wouldn’t sell any of these three stocks over a set of subpoenas. The stakes are a huge bonus on top of businesses whose earnings are growing fast. Of course, if the probe holds up new models or drags on into the IPO roadshows, those marks are what’s at risk.
So what is Microsoft stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
