Key Stats for Nucor Corporation
- 52-Week Range: $131.32 – $270.90
- Current Price: $233.20
- Street Mean Target: $267.13
- Market Cap: $53.1 billion
- NTM P/E: 12.73x
- NTM EV/EBITDA: 8.05x
- Dividend Yield: 1.0%
Nucor Corporation (NUE) is the largest steel producer in the United States, operating a network of electric arc furnace mills that melt scrap metal into structural steel, flat-rolled sheet, and a range of steel products used in construction, automotive, and industrial manufacturing.
Unlike traditional blast furnace steelmakers, Nucor’s electric arc furnace model is more flexible and cost-efficient, allowing it to scale production up or down as demand shifts. The stock has been one of the stronger performers in the market this year, up nearly 38% as tariffs on imported steel effectively raised the price floor for domestic producers.
Q1 2026 was a strong quarter, but the harder question is whether the stock has already captured that good news.
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Revenue Is Recovering but Plateauing, Not Accelerating
The quarterly revenue chart shows the shape of Nucor’s cycle clearly. Revenue dipped to $7.7 billion in Q4 2025 as steel demand softened into year-end.
Q1 2026 bounced back to $9.5 billion, and consensus estimates see $10.1 billion in each of the next two quarters before settling back toward $9.2 billion in Q4 2026.
The pattern is a recovery and a plateau, not a breakout. Revenue is expected to oscillate in the $9-10 billion range through early 2027 rather than step meaningfully higher.
The Q1 2026 results confirmed the recovery. Net sales reached $9.5 billion and net earnings attributable to Nucor shareholders came in at $743 million, or $3.23 per diluted share. EBITDA was $1.51 billion. Volume was the real story: steel tons shipped to external customers totaled 7.4 million, up 26% year over year.
CEO Leon Topalian entered Q2 with confidence, stating the company had “real momentum” and expected second quarter earnings to exceed Q1.
Nucor also declared its 212th consecutive quarterly cash dividend at $0.56 per share. For context, Nucor has paid a dividend every quarter since 1973.
Nucor stock’s backlog data and segment-level performance are live on TIKR. Track the metrics that matter before Q2 results hit. Analyze NUE on TIKR for free →
Earnings Peaked in 2022 and Are Now in Recovery Mode
The EPS chart provides important context. Nucor earned around $2.65 per share in Q2 and Q3 2025, dropped to $1.73 in Q4 2025, and recovered to $3.23 in Q1 2026.
Consensus then expects a meaningful step-up to around $4.53 in Q2, peaking near $5.13 in Q3, before moderating again into Q4.
What this chart does not show, but investors should know, is that Nucor earned over $22 per share in fiscal 2022 at the peak of the post-pandemic steel supercycle. The current recovery, while real, is returning the business to something more like a normalized mid-cycle level rather than a new peak.
Tariffs have been the primary catalyst in 2026. Section 232 steel tariffs made imported steel meaningfully more expensive, pulling forward demand to domestic producers and pushing domestic prices higher.
Nucor’s flexible production model allowed it to capture that volume quickly. The risk is that tariff policy is not permanent, and steel prices are notoriously difficult to forecast.
A softening in construction activity or a change in trade policy could pull earnings back toward the lower end of the range faster than the market currently expects.
See how NUE performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
What the Valuation Model Says
The TIKR valuation model is unusually candid for a stock up nearly 38% this year.
The mid-case target is around $242, implying a total return of roughly 4% over the next four years, or under 1% annualized. The low case, at around $207, implies an actual loss from current prices.
The return is driven by EPS growth of around 9% annually in the mid case, but P/E multiple contraction of nearly 2% per year offsets most of it. Revenue growth is forecast at just over 2% annually, which reflects steel’s mature and cyclical nature. The high case reaches around $300 for a return of roughly 29%, or 3% annualized.
None of these scenarios are particularly compelling relative to the risk profile of a cyclical industrial stock. The model is essentially saying that at $233, Nucor is fairly valued to slightly expensive if you believe the cycle normalizes from here.
Should You Buy Nucor Stock?
Nucor is an exceptionally well-run steel company with a 50-year dividend track record and one of the more durable cost structures in the industry. The tariff environment has genuinely improved its near-term earnings power, and the business deserves credit for how it executed in Q1.
The difficulty is the entry point. At 13x forward earnings with consensus expecting revenue to plateau and EPS to peak mid-year, the stock has already priced in much of the good news.
TIKR’s mid-case targets $254 for NUE by December 2030. See exactly how the model gets there and build your own assumptions. Explore NUE on TIKR for free →
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
