Key Stats for Figma Stock
- Current Price: $21.93
- Target Price (Mid): ~$68
- Street Target: ~$31
- Potential Total Return: ~211% (over ~4.4 years to the model target)
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year (Mid case to 2035); ~29% / year to the ~$68 target
- Max Drawdown: 86.20%
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What Happened?
Figma, Inc. (FIG) closed at $21.93 on July 21, down 8.70% in a single session, and the drop is the least interesting thing about the stock right now. The more telling story is what happened at the research desks. Over the past two months, as shares clawed back from an all-time low, the consensus price target kept sliding, from a mean above $35 in the spring to about $31 now. Eight of the thirteen analysts covering the stock rate it a Hold.
That is a strange thing to see under a recovering stock. Normally, a bounce off the lows brings upgrades. Here, the tape and the research desks drifted in opposite directions, and reconciling that gap is what anyone looking at Figma has to do first. The business grew its revenue 46% last quarter. The stock trades 85% below its first-day high. And several of the analysts closest to the company trimmed their price targets right after touring its June product conference.
The Targets Fell While the Stock Rose
The clearest tell is in the research notes. After attending Figma’s Config 2026 conference in late June, RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria cut his price target to $22 and kept a Sector Perform rating. His issue was not the product. It was the near-term math: Figma is spending so heavily on AI compute that full-year non-GAAP operating margin guidance sits at just 9%, and the payoff from the new AI features he saw on stage is still unproven in timing.
He was not alone in trimming. Wells Fargo cut its target to $36 from $42 the same week, even while keeping an Overweight rating. Set against TIKR’s data, the mean analyst target has fallen steadily, from about $40 in March to roughly $31 by late July, against a book that reads four Buys, one Outperform, and eight Holds. Bank of America and Citi are the louder bulls, reinstating and initiating Buys in the $30 to $36 range on the argument that AI is a tailwind for design rather than a threat. But the weight of coverage has drifted toward wait-and-see, and the July 21 drop landed without any fresh bullish call to cushion it.
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Why the Caution Is Surprising
What makes the Hold stance notable is that Figma’s first quarter was its strongest as a public company. Revenue grew 46% year over year to $333.44 million, beating the average estimate of $316.02 million by 5.5% and accelerating from 40% growth in the prior quarter. Net dollar retention, which measures how much more existing customers spend versus a year earlier, reached 139%, the highest in over two years.
The adoption signals underneath were louder than the headline. CEO Dylan Field said Google now uses Figma end-to-end as its single source of truth for building AI products, and that its teams can only “get to a level of detail that we want in Figma.” Among the largest customers, those using Figma’s MCP, the connective layer that lets AI agents read and write Figma files directly, grew paid seats roughly 70% faster than those who did not. Pro team conversions, an early indicator of future paid growth, rose over 150% from a year earlier. AI is pulling this business deeper into customer workflows, not displacing it.
The company also began charging for AI on March 18. CFO Praveer Melwani called it “a key monetization milestone,” and the early data held: more than 75% of enterprise users who had blown past their old credit limits kept paying to consume credits. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to a range of $1.422 billion to $1.428 billion on the strength of it.
What the Bears Are Actually Weighing
So why the caution? Three things sit on the other side of the ledger. The first is competition from the same model providers Figma partners with. If foundation-model labs commoditize design generation, Figma’s pricing power erodes before its margins arrive. The second is insider behavior: between June 3 and June 6, during Config week, Field sold 174,430 shares and other executives trimmed stakes, all under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans that schedule sales in advance. The sales are not by themselves a signal of lost confidence, but executives reducing exposure near the lows is an optic that takes quarters to erase. The third is short interest: according to market data compiled by third-party trackers, roughly 42% of Figma’s tradable float was sold short heading into July, which is why any good news produces violent, squeeze-driven rallies like the near-12% jump on July 13, and any technical crack produces days like July 21.
On valuation, Figma trades at about 6.6 times next-twelve-month revenue. Adobe, the incumbent, trades near 3.3 times but grows a fraction as fast, while Manycore Technology, the Chinese design-software peer, trades far higher at about 13.7 times. Figma sits in the middle, and whether its premium to Adobe holds depends entirely on whether the 46% growth rate survives contact with AI competition.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $21.93
- Target Price (Mid): ~$68
- Potential Total Return: ~211%
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year (to 2035); ~29% / year to the ~$68 target
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The TIKR Valuation Model mid-case puts fair value near $68, a total return of roughly 211% realized over about four and a half years, or close to 29% annualized to that target. Extended to 2035, the mid-case implies an IRR near 19% a year.
- Two revenue drivers: seat expansion as design spreads into engineering and product teams, and AI credit monetization now that usage is billed.
- Margin driver: operating leverage, as gross margin near 80%, converts to profit once AI compute costs are absorbed.
- Primary risk: AI competition from Figma’s own model partners, compressing growth and pricing before margins arrive.
- Upside: faster AI monetization and a margin inflection push the stock toward the high-case $135.
- Downside: growth decelerates, the multiple compresses to six times sales, and the stock slides back toward the mid-teens, where it just was.
Conclusion
August 5 settles the argument. Figma guided second-quarter revenue to $348 million to $350 million, about 40% growth and above the Street’s roughly $330 million consensus. Clear that bar with net dollar retention holding near 139%, and the analysts who trimmed their targets will have to chase them back up. Miss it, or show retention slipping as AI pricing bites, and the eight Holds become the consensus that was right all along, with the June lows back in play. Watch the retention line as closely as the revenue number. It is the single figure that decides whether the Street is being prudent or simply late.
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Should You Invest in Figma?
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Pull up Figma, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
