Key Stats for Aon plc
- 52-Week Range: $304.59 – $381.00
- Current Price: $359.40
- Street Mean Target: $393.11
- Market Cap: $76.8 billion
- NTM P/E: 18.21x
- NTM EV/EBITDA: 14.62x
- Dividend Yield: 0.9%
Aon plc (AON) is one of the world’s largest professional services firms, operating primarily as an insurance broker and risk advisor. The business sits between companies facing complex risks and the insurance markets that price and absorb those risks.
When a multinational corporation needs to insure a new facility, manage employee benefits across dozens of countries, or build a reinsurance program, Aon is typically in the room. The company generates revenue through advisory fees and commissions, meaning it does not take on insurance risk itself.
Revenue grows when the world gets more complex, when insurance pricing rises, and when Aon wins more of its clients’ spending. The stock has barely moved this year while the underlying business quietly keeps compounding.
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Earnings That Have Grown Every Year Without Interruption
The EPS chart tells the most important story about Aon. Normalized earnings per share grew from $12.00 in 2021 to $17.07 in 2025, a steady annual increase without a single down year across a period that included rising rates, geopolitical disruption, and a major acquisition.
Consensus now projects $19.10 this year, $21.38 in 2027, and nearly $28 by 2030. At the current price of roughly $359 against this year’s estimate of around $19, Aon trades at about 19x forward earnings.
Q1 2026 reinforced the trajectory, as revenue came in at $5.034 billion, up 6% year over year with 5% organic growth. Adjusted EPS reached $6.48, up 14% from the prior year quarter. Adjusted operating margin expanded to 39.1%, up 70 basis points, reflecting the ongoing benefits of Aon’s restructuring program and operating leverage as the business scales.
CEO Greg Case pointed to rising demand from large and middle-market clients for integrated solutions combining risk expertise, data, and analytics, which is exactly the direction Aon has been investing toward through its 3×3 Plan, a strategic framework focused on expanding client relationships across three solution areas and three client segments.
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A Business That Generates Over $3 Billion in Free Cash Flow Every Year
The FCF chart is less dramatic than some in this series but makes a different kind of argument.
Aon generated $2.0 billion in 2021, stepped up to $3.0 billion in 2022, $3.2 billion in 2023, dipped to $2.8 billion in 2024 as integration costs from the NFP acquisition weighed on results, and returned to $3.2 billion in 2025.
Consistent, high-level cash generation across every type of market environment is what funds Aon’s capital return program.
In Q1 2026 alone, free cash flow came in at $363 million, up 332% from the prior year quarter, which had been depressed by acquisition-related costs.
The company returned $662 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the quarter and announced a 10% increase to the quarterly dividend, the sixth consecutive double-digit annual increase.
Full-year guidance calls for mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, 70-80 basis points of additional margin expansion, and double-digit FCF growth. For a business with a 0.71 beta, that is a compelling combination of consistency and returns.
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What the Valuation Model Suggests
TIKR’s model targets around $508 per share in the mid case over roughly four years, implying a total return of about 41% from current levels, or around 8% annualized.
The high case approaches $708 by the extended forecast horizon. The scenario distribution is moderately tight relative to some of the other stocks in this series.
The return is driven by EPS growth of around 6% annually in the mid case, with P/E essentially flat. Net income margins are forecast to expand modestly toward 24%, consistent with the margin expansion Aon has been delivering.
The honest framing is that 8% annualized is decent for a low-volatility compounder with a growing dividend, but investors looking for outsized returns will find more compelling opportunities elsewhere. AON earns its premium through durability and consistency, not growth.
Should You Buy Aon Stock?
Aon is the kind of business that rewards patience. It operates in a structurally growing market, generates over $3 billion in annual free cash flow, has raised its dividend for six consecutive years, and delivers margin expansion almost every year.
The valuation at 18x forward earnings is reasonable without being obviously cheap. The risk is modest growth: 5% organic revenue and 6% EPS growth leave little margin for error if the macro environment softens or insurance market conditions turn.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
