Key Takeaways
- Nebius stock is up 103% in 2026, helped by an August report in which second-quarter revenue rose 454% to $582.3 million.
- Its October slide came from debt fears that started at CoreWeave and spread to every AI cloud, capped by Elon Musk’s warning, more than from bad news at Nebius.
- Contracts with Microsoft and Meta back Nebius’s borrowing and Palantir added a new sales channel, but analysts expect its capex to reach $29.1 billion in 2027.
- At about 6.5x forward sales, with estimates holding, the stock is worth buying for investors who can sit through big swings, as long as November’s report shows customers still paying up front.
Nebius Group (NBIS) is up 103% in 2026 through Wednesday’s close, even after falling about 23% since Sept. 30 as investors soured on AI cloud companies that run on borrowed money.
The scare started at CoreWeave (CRWV), and on Oct. 25 SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted on X that more than 200 neoclouds are “going to see guppy-level death and consolidation.” Musk isn’t neutral: SpaceX runs its own data centers and sells computing capacity. Nebius says it has “investment-grade customer commitments of more than $40 billion of long-term contracts,” including Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META). In September, Palantir (PLTR) named it its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner.
The August Report Kept the Rally Going
Before the open on Aug. 12, Nebius reported its second quarter:
- Revenue up 454% to $582.3 million
- Adjusted EBITDA of $236.2 million, a 41% margin, against a $21.0 million loss a year earlier
- Four new AI cloud deals averaging more than $1 billion each
The stock jumped 34% that day.
A month later, Palantir added a channel: it will offer Nebius’s compute to commercial customers running their own models.
October’s Selloff Started at CoreWeave
Worries about CoreWeave’s debt hit Nebius hard on Oct. 16, though the two balance sheets looked nothing alike. At June 30, Nebius’s borrowings net of cash came to about $0.5 billion, excluding leases, against about $29.5 billion at CoreWeave on the same basis.
On Oct. 22, Nebius announced a $3.5 billion, 364-day secured facility from Citi, priced at SOFR plus 2.75% and stepping up to as much as 3.5%.
Musk says that window is closing. Debt markets, he wrote, have “almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.”
TIKR Tracks 23 Analysts on Nebius. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Nebius, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Nebius’ Analyst Ratings
The Bill Comes Due in 2027
Nebius’s net debt won’t stay small, though. Analysts see capex of $23.2 billion this year and $29.1 billion in 2027, and net debt of about $34 billion by the end of 2027.
Customers cover a big piece, with more than $9 billion of prepayments expected this year. Nebius can also borrow against its contracts: Microsoft’s is worth $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion, and Meta’s up to $27 billion, including up to $15 billion that Meta must buy if Nebius can’t sell the capacity to other customers.
CEO Arkady Volozh said in September that the shortage of AI computing power should balance in a year or two, while deals at today’s prices pay back in under two years.
What November Has to Show
Nebius hasn’t set a date for its third-quarter report, which is expected in November. Analysts expect about $906 million of revenue, and management is aiming for $7 billion to $9 billion of annualized revenue by December, from $3.0 billion at June 30.
Analysts still expect revenue to multiply in 2026 and 2027:
They’ve trimmed their 2027-2030 estimates by less than 2% since Sept. 30, and nothing in October’s news touched Nebius’s demand.
I’d watch deferred revenue most: it jumped to $6.0 billion at June 30 from $1.6 billion at the end of 2025, and it shows whether customers still pay up front for 2027.
Why I’d Buy More Nebius at 6.5x Sales
Nebius traded at 6.5x forward sales on Oct. 27, about half its 13x at the end of June and below its 32x peak in October 2025:
The average analyst price target is $281, 54% above Wednesday’s close.
Take profits? I wouldn’t. Estimates are holding while the multiple has been cut in half, and that’s the trade I want, as long as you can sit through swings like October’s.
Dilution comes with it, though. A share sold at Wednesday’s close raises about a fifth less than the $224 average Nebius got in the second quarter. And depreciation still topped adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, even after Nebius stretched its servers’ useful life to five years from four. If prepayments slow, expect more stock or debt in the year the Citi loan comes due.
So What Is Nebius Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
