AbbVie’s Pipeline Had a Mixed Week. The October 30 Report Has to Show Its Guidance Still Rises

Key Takeaways

• AbbVie filed its multiple myeloma drug etentamig with the FDA this week, days after its skin-disease drug lutikizumab beat placebo by just 8 points in a Phase 3 trial.
• Neither drug is approved, so the stock rests on what AbbVie sells today, and the third-quarter report on Oct. 30 is the real test.
• Analysts expect $13.95 of adjusted EPS for 2026. That’s up from $10.00 in 2025 and at the top of AbbVie’s $13.76-$13.96 guidance.
• At 19x forward earnings against a five-year average of 14x, the stock needs AbbVie’s underlying full-year outlook to rise again on Friday.

AbbVie (ABBV) had a busy week in its pipeline, and none of it will show up in Friday’s numbers.

On Tuesday, AbbVie asked the FDA to approve etentamig for multiple myeloma that has come back or stopped responding to treatment. Last Thursday, its drug lutikizumab met its main goal in a Phase 3 trial in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS), a painful skin disease. But BMO analyst Evan Seigerman said its efficacy may trail rival drugs tested in separate trials, Reuters reported.

What Exactly Happened

Here are the trial results behind each headline:

• Etentamig: in the Phase 3 CERVINO trial, 74.0% of patients responded, against 45.7% on standard therapies. It also cut the risk of the disease progressing or death by 60%.
• Lutikizumab: 31.4% of patients reached the trial’s main response goal at week 16, against 23.4% on placebo. Leerink said investors had expected a gap of at least 17 to 20 points, and this one was 8.

Neither drug is approved, so neither adds a dollar to the third-quarter report AbbVie releases before the open on Friday, Oct. 30. That report matters more for the stock, because AbbVie’s case rests on the drugs it already sells.

Skyrizi and Rinvoq Carry the Load

Skyrizi and Rinvoq make up 47.2% of the roughly $67.6 billion of revenue AbbVie expects in 2026. Management guides Skyrizi to $21.7 billion and Rinvoq to about $10.2 billion.

With those two leading, AbbVie’s revenue has beaten the same quarter a year earlier in each of the last eight quarters:

The second quarter brought $17.0 billion, up 10.2% from a year earlier, and Skyrizi grew 24.4%. For the third quarter, management guides about $17.2 billion, against $15.8 billion a year ago, or roughly 9% growth.

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Strip Out the Deals

Analysts expect adjusted EPS to rise about 40% this year, from $10.00 to $13.95, though about half of that jump comes from lighter deal charges. 2025’s figure absorbed $2.76 a share of acquired IPR&D, against $0.69 so far this year. From there, analysts see EPS climbing to $18.10 by 2028:

That $13.95 is right at the top of AbbVie’s own guidance of $13.76-$13.96.

But that range moves with AbbVie’s dealmaking as much as with its drugs. It’s down from $14.37-$14.57 in February because it now includes two deal costs: the $0.69 of IPR&D charges, and $0.14 of dilution from Apogee, the $10.9 billion purchase that closed on Sept. 3.

Take those out, and by my math the outlook is $14.59-$14.79. That’s $0.22 higher at the midpoint than in February, including $0.10 of overperformance AbbVie added in July.

So the number to watch on Friday is that underlying outlook. Another raise would mean Skyrizi and Rinvoq are still running ahead of plan, whatever deal charges do to the headline range. A flat outlook would mean the business has settled into the pace AbbVie already promised.

The Stock Is Priced for Things to Go Right

Investors are paying a lot for that EPS path. AbbVie trades at 19x forward earnings, well above its five-year average of 14x and close to its five-year high of 20x in October 2025:

That multiple only holds up if earnings reach the Street’s $18.10 for 2028 on schedule, which works out to about 14% a year from 2026. And management says 2027 has to absorb about $0.46 a share of Apogee dilution. The stock already traded near $285 last week, above the Street’s $283.50 average target.

What AbbVie Has to Show on Friday

Four things to check in the release:

• Third-quarter revenue against the Street’s roughly $17.37 billion, already above AbbVie’s own $17.2 billion guide
• Skyrizi sales at or above UBS’s $5.7 billion forecast, as reported by Reuters
• A full-year adjusted EPS outlook that rises again once deal charges are taken out, with the revenue guide of about $67.6 billion held or raised
• The dividend decision, which usually comes around October results, after raises of 5.8% and 5.5% the past two years

AbbVie’s current business has earned some trust: eight straight quarters of year-over-year revenue growth and about $0.22 of underlying raises this year. But at 19x, with the stock already above the Street’s average target, a quarter that only meets the plan isn’t enough for me. Friday needs another raise.

The pipeline will matter more over time. Management says Skyrizi’s regulatory data protection runs to 2031 and its main patent to 2033, with other U.S. patents, granted and pending, reaching into the mid-2030s and later. It doesn’t expect biosimilar filings before the end of the decade, and this month’s news is an early look at the drugs that will carry growth after that.

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