Key Takeaways
- AerCap closed up about 4% after adjusted EPS of $6.56 beat the $4.56 consensus and it raised its 2026 target to about $20.70.
- Fuel costs are squeezing airlines, but scarce new jets keep AerCap’s planes selling well above book value.
- That scarcity backs Boeing’s order book and GE Aerospace’s aftermarket, and FTAI Aviation reported Thursday morning.
- Gains on sale helped the beat, but the stock still trades near its five-year average forward P/E.
AerCap (AER) shares closed up about 4% at $156 on Wednesday after another record quarter. At one point, they were up nearly 6%, close to a record high. Third-quarter adjusted EPS came in at $6.56, against the $4.56 analysts expected. AerCap now sees about $20.70 for 2026, above a $19.07 consensus.
The quarter is good news for Boeing (BA), whose customers are waiting on planes, and GE Aerospace (GE), which earns more when older planes keep flying. It also sets a high bar for FTAI Aviation (FTAI), which reported Thursday morning.
TIKR tracks 10 analysts on AerCap. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on AerCap, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See AerCap’s Analyst Ratings
A record quarter, and a raised guide
Revenue rose 5% to $2.42 billion, well ahead of the $2.16 billion consensus. AerCap also sold 70 assets for $1.1 billion in the quarter, at 2.6x book value on an equity basis. And it has bought back over $2.2 billion of stock this year, about 10% of its shares at the start of the year. Adjusted return on equity hit a record 22%.
CEO Aengus Kelly said “higher fuel prices are impacting airline profitability,” but argued that managing planes and engines across their whole lives is “what makes AerCap’s earnings power durable.”
And the new target, which leaves out any gains on planes sold in the fourth quarter, extends a steep climb in per-share earnings…
Consensus still has 2027 slipping to $18.22. Watch whether today’s raise lifts that number.
Scarce jets help more than AerCap
Kelly said demand for AerCap’s assets “continues to outstrip available supply.” He also expects sale-leaseback talks with airlines to heat up in the new year.
Boeing booked 300 net orders in the third quarter, for a backlog of over 6,300 airplanes. But its 737 line is still working toward 47 a month. Its order book looks safe, and how fast it builds is the question for its next report.
GE Aerospace’s commercial services orders rose 23% in the third quarter. Management expects that business to grow at a low double-digit rate in 2027, down from the low 20s this year. And AerCap’s sale prices make that look reachable.
FTAI Aviation is the closest comparison: its Aerospace Products revenue grew 78% in the second quarter. Its third-quarter report, out Thursday morning, is the next read on prices for planes and engines.
Durable earnings at an average price
AerCap trades at 8.6x forward earnings, near its five-year average of 8.3x and well below its 2022 high of 11.8x:
The beat had some help, though. Gains on sale totaled $353 million, and those swing from quarter to quarter. Basic lease rents were flat at about $1.7 billion. And GAAP EPS fell to $6.17 from $6.98, since last year’s quarter included $475 million of Ukraine-related recoveries.
My take: Still, “durable” looks earned. With a shrinking share count and a guide that leaves out fourth-quarter sale gains, I see more upside from here.
But if jet fuel stays this expensive, weaker airlines could struggle to pay rent.
So what is AerCap stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what AerCap could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
