Key Stats for Nebius Stock
- Current Price: $165.47
- Street Target: ~$284
- Upside to Street Mean: ~71%
- LTM Net Debt: $2,153.20 million
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What Happened?
Nebius Group (NBIS) closed at $165.47 on October 16, 2026, down 12.18%. Selling in debt-funded AI cloud stocks spread from CoreWeave (CRWV), which fell nearly 12% in the same session. Reuters tied the contagion to worries over CoreWeave’s roughly $50 billion debt load, after hotter inflation data lifted bets on rate hikes.
TECHi found no Nebius earnings release or contract announcement behind the drop. Nebius’ balance sheet still looks nothing like CoreWeave’s, but the Street’s estimates show that gap closing by 2027.
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Nebius Was Sold for Debt It Doesn’t Carry Yet
CoreWeave’s Q2 10-Q reported $35.6 billion of total indebtedness and $5.524 billion of cash at June 30, roughly $30 billion net. Reuters’ higher $50 billion figure reflects borrowing since then. TIKR shows Nebius with LTM net debt of $2.15 billion through its June quarter. That was before its $5.75 billion of convertible notes closed August 24.
Part of the difference is how Nebius funds its buildout. At Citi’s Global TMT Conference on September 9, Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh called the Meta and Microsoft bare-metal contracts “not our core business.” He added: “we use those big contracts to help finance our main part and to build our independent part, our cloud part.” He also said, “we’re building for Meta now. Our second contract comes in Q1, Q2 next year.” Customer prepayments, detailed in Nebius’ investor relations materials, cover part of the remaining capex.
The Street’s Estimates Close the Gap by 2027
TIKR consensus shows Nebius borrowing heavily from here:
- Net debt: $449.6 million at the end of 2025, rising to around $14 billion at the end of 2026 and around $34 billion at the end of 2027.
- Interest expense: $57.8 million in 2025, rising to around $1.1 billion in 2027.
- Free cash flow: negative in every year from 2026 through 2029.
That 2027 estimate would put Nebius above CoreWeave’s roughly $30 billion of net debt at June 30, though CoreWeave has kept borrowing since. Analysts expect 2027 revenue of around $12.3 billion and EBITDA of around $6.6 billion, enough to cover interest about six times. If capacity arrives late, coverage shrinks while the debt stays.
Volozh also put a limit on today’s pricing power: “you can unfortunately sell anything today.” He added that “this situation is not forever,” and said customers will start comparing products once supply and demand balance. On October 14, Gartner predicted that cost pressure and “a lack of a differentiating business model” will force over 80% of neocloud providers to cease independent operations by 2030, an outcome that can include being acquired.
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The Street Estimate Analysis
- Current Price: $165.47
- Street Target (Mean): ~$284
- Upside to Street Mean: ~71%
- Target Range: $84 to $410
- Ratings: 13 Buy, 2 Outperform, 6 Hold, 1 Underperform, 1 Sell
- NTM EV/EBITDA: ~13x for Nebius, vs. ~16x for Core Scientific (CORZ), ~17x for Microsoft (MSFT), and ~7x for IREN (IREN)
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Nebius trades between its peers rather than at a deep discount. Part of the premium to IREN may reflect Nebius’ full-stack cloud software, which Volozh said sells at prices “like 2 or 4x higher” than bare metal. The discount to Microsoft fits a business that still burns cash.
Conclusion
Nasdaq and FactSet calendars list the Q3 report for October 22, though other trackers estimate November 10. Consensus expects revenue of around $905 million.
The sharper test is what Nebius pays for its next borrowing. Its August convertibles carry coupons of 0.50% and 4.50%, while yields on CoreWeave’s 2030 bonds climbed to near 16% during the October selloff. New Nebius debt priced near its own coupons would keep the gap. Double-digit pricing would mean credit markets now see the two companies the same way.
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So what is Nebius stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
