Key Stats for Boeing Stock
- Current Price: $190.21
- Target Price (Mid): ~$2,010
- Street Target: ~$267
- Potential Total Return: ~955%
- Annualized IRR: ~75% / year
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What Happened?
The Boeing Company’s (BA) global sales chief, Brad McMullen, will retire in December, with North America sales head Ryan Weir taking over, Reuters reported on October 16, citing an internal memo rather than a company announcement. McMullen led Boeing’s commercial recovery after the 2024 door-plug blowout and was seen as influential in repairing airline relations. The report landed after the October 16 close, so Monday, October 19, is the first session that can price it.
Weir takes over as Boeing’s bigger cash question sits with jets it has already paid to build. Its investor relations materials set October 27 for third-quarter results.
$27.5 Billion Sitting in the 737 and 787 Programs
Deferred production costs are what Boeing spends building early jets above the average cost it books per plane, recovered as later units deliver more profitably. Boeing’s second-quarter 10-Q put the balances at June 30:
- 737: $13,081 million, up from $11,777 million at year-end
- 787: $14,428 million, up from $13,859 million at year-end
Boeing expects to recover $2,148 million of 787 deferred and tooling costs from orders it has not yet booked.
CFO Jay Malave told Morgan Stanley’s Laguna conference on September 16 when the balances stop growing: “We think next year, we’ll start to level off there at least in the 737 and the 787.” He flagged two more sources of cash:
- stored 737-7s and 737-10s that start delivering next year over roughly 18 months
- excess commodity inventory, an opportunity he put at “multiple billions of dollars” that will take years to work down
Reuters reports the MAX 10 could be certified as soon as the week of October 19, a report, not an approval.
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The 777X Keeps Absorbing Cash
The 777X is moving the other way: its work in process rose to $6,366 million on June 30 from $4,313 million at year-end. Discussing the program that day, Malave said its cash flow next year should be roughly in line with 2026’s, adding, “We expect to improve in ‘28 and then turn positive in ‘29.” CEO Kelly Ortberg added that 787 rate 10 was probably moving toward year-end because engine deliveries from GE Aerospace (GE) were behind.
Investors are paying ahead for that timeline. Boeing trades at around 31x NTM EV/EBITDA, against around 13x for Airbus (AIR) and around 15x for Safran (SAF). RBC and Morgan Stanley cut their targets to $235 and $225 on October 15 and 16, and the Street mean stood at $267.22 on October 16.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $190.21
- Target Price (Mid): ~$2,010
- Potential Total Return: ~955%
- Annualized IRR: ~75% / year
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TIKR’s mid case, the model’s central scenario, reaches around $2,010 by December 31, 2030. Its assumptions run through 2035:
- Revenue growth: around 9% a year
- Net margin: 4.5%
- EPS growth: around 28% a year
- P/E change: falling only about 3% a year
Boeing trades at around 214x NTM earnings on TIKR’s Competitors page, so the target is a scenario that leans on that premium holding, not a forecast. Upside comes if the deferred balances reverse on Malave’s timeline. Downside comes if the 737 balance keeps climbing into 2027 or 777X cash stays negative past 2029, leaving that multiple with little earnings support.
Conclusion
The 737 deferred balance rose $532 million in the second quarter, to $13,081 million. Boeing reports third-quarter results on October 27, and its next 10-Q will update that figure. A smaller increase supports Malave’s timeline; a larger one pushes the payoff further out.
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So what is Boeing stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
