Key Stats for Strategy Stock
- Current Price: $136.83
- Street Target (Mean): ~$239
- Street Target (Median): ~$215
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What Happened?
Strategy (MSTR) closed down 9.56% at $136.83 on Friday, October 16, the first session after MSCI said it will make non-operating companies ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes. The broader market fell too: the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.14% in a tech selloff, and TIKR puts MSTR’s five-year beta at 3.55. Bitcoin, the asset behind the stock, traded near $82,000 on Friday morning, about 2% above a day earlier. The company’s investor relations materials set the next two tests for October 28 and 29.
MSCI’s Rule Hits the Premium More Than the Shares
MSCI screens first for substantial operating assets. Companies that fail are ineligible if flagged on four or more of five financial ratios, and current members are removed only if they fail in each of their two most recent annual filing periods. The final list arrives November 11, effective at the November 30 close. A simulation in MSCI’s August consultation flagged Strategy, Metaplanet and Yellow Cake for deletion, Cointelegraph reported. Strategy counters that it reports its Bitcoin business as an operating segment under U.S. GAAP, so this is a finalized rule, not a confirmed removal.
The forced selling is small. Strategy says MSCI-linked funds hold about 13 million shares, roughly $1.8 billion at Friday’s close and less than one day of trading volume. The wider risk is contagion: in November 2025, under MSCI’s earlier proposal, JPMorgan estimated up to $8.8 billion of outflows if other index providers followed MSCI. CEO Phong Le called exclusion “really immaterial to us” at an August 18 investor Q&A.
The larger cost falls on the premium. Le said issuing stock above 1x net asset value (NAV) to buy Bitcoin adds Bitcoin per share, and put Strategy’s multiple near 1.07x in August. That left little room before Friday’s drop, and losing a class of passive buyers makes the premium harder to rebuild.
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Strategy Is Buying Far Less Bitcoin Than in the First Quarter
In the week to October 11, Strategy bought 250 Bitcoin for $21.5 million, against about 89,599 in the first quarter of 2026. The same week it spent $192.4 million buying back STRC preferred stock at an average of about $99.58, inside the $99 to $100 target range Executive Chairman Michael Saylor described in August. He also said that “we will tend to buy less Bitcoin in a weak Bitcoin market than in a strong market.”
The October 12 filing showed no repurchases of the common stock and $1.0 billion of authority remaining. Saylor said that if MSTR traded at “a very, very deep discount to NAV, then probably you would see us do something like that.”
Analysts have not retreated. The Street mean rose from $229.87 on September 30 to $239.27 on October 16, about 75% above Friday’s close, while the median sits at $215. Thirteen analysts rate the stock Buy, two Outperform and one Hold. Cantor Fitzgerald kept its Overweight rating and raised its target to $208 from $186 on October 16, below the Street mean.
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Conclusion
Shareholders vote October 28 on daily dividends for STRC and Strategy’s other preferreds, and third-quarter results follow after the close on October 29. Strategy already disclosed an estimated $20.91 billion third-quarter gain on digital assets, so the report’s real test is the premium. If Strategy’s NAV multiple holds above 1x into MSCI’s November 11 list, stock sales still add Bitcoin per share by Le’s test; only a deep discount, in Saylor’s words, would bring the $1.0 billion buyback into play.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
