Key Stats for Nebius Stock
- Current Price: $159.17
- Street Target (Mean): ~$281
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What Happened?
Nebius Group (NBIS) fell 7.23% to $159.17 on October 22, 2026, the day it announced a $3.5 billion senior secured facility from Citigroup (C). The whole group sold off: CoreWeave (CRWV) lost 10.06% and IREN (IREN) 8.37%, both closing at 2026 lows. Nebius is now down 32.52% from its September 30 close, and its CEO has already said publicly that the shortage behind its pricing will not last indefinitely.
Volozh’s Window for the AI Compute Shortage
Speaking at Citi’s Global TMT Conference on September 9, founder and CEO Arkady Volozh said supply and demand will eventually meet: “Will it happen in a year, 18 months, 22 months, 24 months, it will balance some time.” He also said deals at current prices pay back their capital spending in under two years, about 22 months, so capacity signed now could still be paying back when that balance arrives. He did not rule out the opposite: “the prices may not just go down. Maybe they will go up, who knows.”
Nebius is building for either outcome. Dynamic spot pricing for preemptible GPUs took effect October 8, and on October 21 Nebius made those prices public on its website and on trackers such as Shadeform and Silicon Data. Volozh had argued that a supply-short market needs “some automated procedure to always balance growing demand versus limited supply,” adding: “We need to build the system here.”
A 364-Day Facility for a Multi-Year Buildout
The Citi facility matures in 364 days and initially bears interest at Term SOFR plus 2.75%, rising to as much as 3.50%. Proceeds go to data center development, GPU procurement, and general corporate purposes. Nebius’s first secured debt, a roughly $775 million term loan announced in July, runs to October 2030 at SOFR plus 2.50%.
COO Ophir Nave said: “Sequencing our financing is how we optimize our long-term cost of capital.” Coverage of the October 22 selloff mostly pointed to sector-wide worries about debt-funded AI spending, with Brent crude above $112 and CoreWeave’s bond yields above 15%, rather than anything specific to Nebius. Before that, the steepest October declines came on October 14 and 16, as TIKR covered on October 19. Any amount drawn on the Citi facility comes due within 364 days unless Nebius refinances it.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on Nebius. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Nebius, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Nebius’s Analyst Ratings
The Street Estimate Analysis
- Current Price: $159.17
- Street Target (Mean): ~$281 (20 estimates, $84 to $410, as of October 21)
- Implied Upside to Mean Target: ~77%
- 2026 Revenue Consensus: ~$3.3 billion
- 2027 Revenue Consensus: ~$12.2 billion
- Q3 2026 Revenue Consensus: ~$906 million
About 70% of expected 2026 revenue falls in the second half, after $582.3 million in the second quarter. Since June 30, the 2027 revenue consensus has risen about 7% while shares have fallen 42%. Since September 30, estimates for 2027 through 2030 have been trimmed by less than 2%. Investors are marking down the stock far faster than analysts are marking down revenue.
The next marker is the third-quarter report, for which Nebius has not announced a date (the year-ago report came on November 11). If management updates the under-two-year payback it cited in August and the figure holds, pricing is still outrunning new supply. A drift back toward the two-to-three-year paybacks Nebius cited earlier would suggest Volozh’s window is closing early.
So what is Nebius stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
