Key Stats for IonQ Stock
- Current Price: $32.28
- Target Price (Mid): ~$160
- Street Target: ~$64
- Potential Total Return: ~396%
- Annualized IRR: ~47% / year
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What Happened?
IonQ (IONQ) closed at $32.28 on October 21, about 19% below the $40 a share in the $2 billion offering it priced one week earlier. Shares rose 3.26% that day as quantum names rebounded, yet the stock is down 28% in 2026 and 55% below its one-year closing peak.
TIKR has already covered the dilution from that deal. Less discussed is that the fab IonQ bought to build its own chips also builds them for rivals.
D-Wave Still Builds Its Chips in IonQ’s Fab
On October 13, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) signed a multi-year agreement to keep making its superconducting processors at SkyWater, the foundry IonQ acquired on July 31. The partnership spans more than a decade, and a direct rival chose to stay after IonQ took ownership.
That matches what management described at the September 8 Investor Day. SkyWater CEO Thomas Sonderman said the fab runs thousands of quantum wafers, a third of them tied to IonQ, and counts nine quantum customers. Inder Singh, IonQ’s CFO and COO, said IonQ sells components to other quantum companies, adding, “we also manufacture some of what they need in the SkyWater Quantum foundry.”
That revenue arrives while IonQ’s 256-qubit Superion systems are still being readied, with first customer deployments targeted for early 2027. Singh said IonQ will give color on SkyWater in two buckets, its CMOS foundry and its quantum foundry and advanced technologies, though not every line item on earnings calls.
Security Deals Are Still Small, and Quantinuum Is Pressing
At the same event, Jordan Shapiro, who presented IonQ’s security strategy, put the company’s estimate of the qubits needed to reach Q-Day at 19,397. Q-Day is when quantum computers could threaten critical infrastructure. That is IonQ’s own figure, not an independent finding.
IonQ also announced an $8.18 million Congruity360 agreement that day and called it among the largest commercial quantum security deals in the U.S., a sign of how small deal sizes still are. Its Elisity acquisition, announced October 12, adds a conventional security business to that effort.
Competition is sharpening. Quantinuum (QNT) said on October 19 that it reached 99.9995% logical memory fidelity, which it called a record. Morgan Stanley named Quantinuum its top quantum play on October 15, the same day it cut its IonQ target to $43 from $49 at Equal Weight.
IonQ trades at about 17 times next-twelve-months enterprise value to revenue, against around 126 times for Rigetti Computing (RGTI).
TIKR tracks 14 analysts on IonQ. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on IonQ, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See IonQ’s Analyst Ratings
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $32.28
- Target Price (Mid): ~$160
- Potential Total Return: ~396%
- Annualized IRR: ~47% / year
The mid case assumes three things across its forecast: revenue grows around 53% a year, net margin stays near negative 62%, and the P/E multiple holds flat. The target therefore rests on sales growth rather than profit.
At around $160, the $69.46 warrants from the offering would be deep in the money. Exercising all of them would add 100 million shares and about $6.9 billion in cash.
Upside comes if foundry and security revenue compound alongside computing. The downside is losses that force more raises below $40.
Conclusion
The third-quarter report, expected in November, will be the first with SkyWater consolidated. Analysts expect about $141 million in revenue on average. A beat with color on the quantum foundry would support the $450 million to $460 million full-year guidance. A miss would leave the $40 buyer looking early.
So what is IonQ stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
