Key Stats for Nebius Group Stock
- 52-Week Range: $43.89 – $299.86
- Current Price: $240.30
- Street Mean Target: $244
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $399.0M (+684% YoY)
- Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $129.5M (vs. -$53.7M in Q1 2025)
- Market Cap: ~$61.5B
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684% Revenue Growth Is the Headline, But the ARR Tells the Real Story
Nebius (NBIS) spent years as a relatively obscure spinoff from the former Yandex, and then 2026 happened. The company reported Q1 revenue of $399.0 million, up 684% from the same quarter a year earlier, beating consensus estimates of around $392 million. The core AI cloud business grew even faster, with AI revenue surging 841% year-over-year to $389.7 million.
The number Wall Street is really watching, though, is annualized recurring revenue. Core AI cloud ARR surged 54% quarter-over-quarter to $1.92 billion exiting Q1, and management raised its contracted capacity guidance to 4 gigawatts for the full year.
The revenue chart captures the story cleanly. After reporting just $529.8 million for all of 2025, the Street’s consensus now models around $3.4 billion for 2026, scaling toward $11 billion in 2027 and roughly $21 billion by 2028. That kind of trajectory implies that what happened in Q1 is just the opening act.
The operational logic behind the forecast is straightforward: GPU clusters take time to build and contract, but once capacity comes online and customers commit, revenue scales rapidly against a largely fixed cost base.
CEO Arkady Volozh has consistently framed the business around one constraint: supply, not demand. Management noted on the Q1 call that total power was sold out again and that four or more customers were competing for every GPU cluster Nebius brought online.
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From a $27 Billion Meta Deal to a New Pennsylvania Gigafactory, the Scale Is Getting Hard to Ignore
The partnerships signed in early 2026 are what moved this stock from a growth curiosity to a large-cap AI infrastructure name. In March, Nebius announced a five-year deal with Meta valued at up to $27 billion, including $12 billion in dedicated NVIDIA Vera Rubin compute and $15 billion in committed capacity purchases. In the same month, NVIDIA invested $2 billion directly in Nebius, securing priority in the supply chain for next-generation GPU platforms.
The drawdowns chart is worth pausing on. Despite a 167% YTD gain, this stock has repeatedly pulled back 15 to 30% within the same year, including a max drawdown of just over 32% in early February. The most recent pullback is around 16% off the highs.
That volatility is not a bug in the Nebius story; it is a feature of owning a capital-intensive infrastructure business at an early scale, where execution timelines, capex commitments, and quarterly revenue cadence all create room for disappointment.
The Pennsylvania site, which secured up to 1.2 gigawatts of power and land, represents billions in forward spend before a single dollar of revenue flows from it.
On the acquisition side, Nebius closed its purchase of Eigen AI in June, adding inference optimization capabilities to the platform. The company also joined the Nasdaq-100 on June 22, pulling in passive index buying and broadening its institutional shareholder base.
Read the full NBIS Transcript on TIKR to see the 2026 guidance breakdown >>>
At $244 Mean Target and 14 Analysts Covering, Wall Street Is Divided on How Much Is Already Priced In
A year ago, the Street’s mean price target sat around $55 with just two analysts covering the name. Today, there are 14 estimates; the mean target is around $244, and the stock is essentially trading right at that level.
That convergence matters. When the target-to-price ratio compresses from 260% to roughly 102%, it indicates the market has largely caught up with where analysts thought the business was heading.
The bull case, represented by a high target around $380, rests on the forward revenue ramp materializing as modeled, with a back-half 2026 step-up in capacity driving revenue toward the $7 to $9 billion annualized run-rate management has guided toward.
The bear case, with a low target of $120, essentially argues that capex is scaling faster than revenue can follow, that the Meta deal creates customer concentration risk, and that the current NTM EV/Revenue multiple of around 12x leaves little room for execution stumbles.
Neither framing is unreasonable. What the Street targets table makes clear is that the easy part of this trade, identifying a company with extraordinary growth at a time when few were paying attention, is largely behind the investor who is looking at NBIS today.
Should You Invest in Nebius Group Stock?
Nebius Group is a genuine AI infrastructure compounder in the early stages of a multiyear capacity buildout, with real demand, real customers, and real contracts. The risk is equally real: this is a capital-heavy business trading at a premium multiple with a back-weighted revenue ramp that has yet to fully materialize.
For investors comfortable with underwriting that execution risk, TIKR gives you the financial data and modeling tools to track the numbers that matter most as the story unfolds.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
