Key Stats for Nebius Group (NBIS)
- 52-Week Range: $43.89 – $278.84
- Current Price: $227.81 (June 5, 2026, close)
- Street Target Price (Mean): ~$239
- Street Target Price (High): $380
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $399.0M (+684% year over year)
- Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $129.5M (first positive quarter)
- 2026 Capex Guidance: $20B to $25B
- Contracted Power: 3.5 GW (targeting 4 GW by year-end)
- Cash and Equivalents: $9.3B (as of March 31, 2026)
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Sold Out Again: What Nebius Reported in Q1
Nebius (NBIS) is a relatively new name to most investors, but the business is scaling at a rate that is hard to ignore. The company emerged from the restructuring of the old Yandex N.V. and listed on Nasdaq as an independent AI cloud provider, building what CEO Arkady Volozh describes as a full-stack, AI-native hyperscaler.
In Q1 2026, it reported revenue of $399.0 million, up 684% from $50.9 million in the same quarter last year. CFO Dado Alonso offered a concise explanation: “Once again, we sold out our capacity as demand continued to exceed available supply.”
The gross margin story runs alongside the revenue growth and is arguably just as important. Gross margins expanded from 52% in 2024 to nearly 69% by the end of 2025, reflecting improving scale efficiency as the company absorbs the fixed costs of its infrastructure buildout.
The other major milestone from Q1 is the adjusted EBITDA inflection. Nebius generated $129.5 million in adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, compared to a loss of $53.7 million in Q1 2025. That is the first positive adjusted EBITDA quarter in the company’s history as a standalone AI cloud business, and it arrived roughly a quarter ahead of consensus expectations.
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The Backing That Sets Nebius Apart: NVIDIA, Meta, and $6 Billion in Capital
Not every AI infrastructure buildout carries the same strategic endorsement. NVIDIA took a $2 billion equity stake in Nebius this year, and a new contract with Meta has come alongside it. These are not passive votes of confidence.
NVIDIA’s investment aligns directly with its interest in seeing independent cloud providers scale GPU capacity quickly, and the relationship with Meta validates Nebius’s ability to serve workloads at genuine enterprise scale.
The capital picture reinforces the story. Nebius raised more than $6 billion in 2026 through a combination of $4.3 billion in convertible notes and the NVIDIA equity investment, ending Q1 with $9.3 billion in cash. That is the balance sheet of a company that is not scrambling to fund its buildout, but choosing its pace intentionally.
The beats and misses table captures the consistent pattern of operational outperformance. Adjusted EBITDA has come in ahead of consensus estimates in four of the last five quarters, often by wide margins, and the Q1 2026 beat of around 43% on that line was one of the larger ones in the series. The business is moving faster than the models, which tends to create a durable re-rating catalyst when it continues.
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$25 Billion and 3.5 Gigawatts: The Build Behind the Revenue
The most important number from Q1 may not be the revenue figure. Nebius raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $20 billion to $25 billion, up from a prior range of $16 billion to $20 billion. Volozh explained the rationale directly on the earnings call: “Everything we build, we sell, and we are still in the very early days.”
The company has now contracted 3.5 gigawatts of power, already ahead of its prior end-of-year target of 3 gigawatts, and is now targeting at least 4 gigawatts by year-end. A new Pennsylvania facility, expected to support 1.2 gigawatts once fully operational, is the company’s second-owned gigawatt-scale site in the United States.
Owned contracted capacity now accounts for more than 75% of total power commitments, reducing dependence on third-party data center operators and supporting long-term margin visibility as volumes scale.
The capex raise is also forward-looking in a specific way. Management noted that the increase reflects investments in 2027 capacity, with customer commitments already in place. The company is not building speculatively; it is being built to fill a pipeline.
Wall Street Is Paying Attention: Targets Are Rising, but So Is the Stock
Analyst coverage of Nebius has grown rapidly. As recently as Q1 2025, only two analysts had published price targets on the stock. That count has since reached 14, reflecting a shift in how the market classifies this business. It is no longer a speculative early-stage name but a scaling infrastructure platform that institutional research desks are now treating seriously.
The current mean price target is around $239, while the median is closer to $249. Against a closing price of $227.81 on June 5, the consensus implies only modest upside from current levels. A year ago, those same targets implied more than 260% upside. The stock has already done a significant amount of the fundamental work.
The high target of $380 signals that some analysts see a scenario in which the demand cycle extends well into 2027 and beyond, while the low target of $120 reflects concern that capital commitments will outrun revenue growth if conditions shift. Eight analysts currently rate the stock a buy or outperform, against six holds and a small number of more cautious calls.
What the Bulls Are Betting On
- The demand-supply gap is structural. Nebius sold out all available compute capacity in Q1, and the capex raise is a direct response to customer commitments already in place for 2027. If AI model training and inference workloads continue scaling at current rates, the supply shortage driving Nebius’s pricing power is not a temporary condition.
- The NVIDIA stake is more than a financial endorsement. A $2 billion equity investment from the leading GPU supplier signals that NVIDIA sees Nebius as a critical distribution channel for its most advanced hardware. That relationship has implications for both supply access and long-term customer credibility that are difficult to price precisely.
- The margin trajectory is real. Gross margins went from deeply negative in 2023 to nearly 69% by the end of 2025, and adjusted EBITDA turned positive in Q1 2026 ahead of schedule. At scale, AI cloud infrastructure can produce very high operating margins. Nebius is beginning to demonstrate what that curve looks like in practice.
What the Bears Are Watching
- The capex math is extreme. Nebius is guiding for $20 billion to $25 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 against a quarterly revenue run rate that is just beginning to approach the scale needed to support that level of spending. The model requires either a significant further acceleration in revenue or sustained access to favorable financing, and the possibility that neither is available simultaneously is a real scenario.
- Rate sensitivity is a structural risk. Volozh has acknowledged publicly that the economics of long-term infrastructure contracts are sensitive to borrowing costs. The company has raised capital at relatively favorable rates so far, but a meaningful increase in financing costs would compress the margins embedded in multi-year customer agreements before those contracts reprice.
- The consensus upside is thin. With 14 analysts now covering the stock and a mean target only about 5% above the current price, much of the optimistic scenario is already reflected in the valuation. Any execution miss on revenue, margins, or the capex timeline could quickly reprice the stock, given how far it has already moved.
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Should You Invest in Nebius Group?
Nebius is a bet on one specific thesis: that the demand for AI compute infrastructure will remain supply-constrained long enough to justify one of the most aggressive capital buildouts in the history of the technology industry.
The adjusted EBITDA inflection in Q1 2026 is real evidence that the unit economics work at scale, and the $9.3 billion cash position provides a long runway to determine whether demand holds. But the stock has already tripled year to date, the mean analyst target is essentially at the current price, and the capex guidance requires a level of continued conviction that will be tested by every earnings report from here.
Put on TIKR, and you get access to years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have trended over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Nebius Group alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
