Key Stats for Constellation Energy Stock
- Current Price: $270.74
- Target Price (Mid): ~$465
- Street Target: ~$338
- Potential Total Return: ~72%
- Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
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What Happened?
Constellation Energy (CEG) closed up 4.60% at $270.74 on October 21, 2026, a day after SpaceX (SPCX) CEO Elon Musk said the constraint on deploying superintelligence is “more in power and cooling and infrastructure than it is in chips.” No single catalyst was confirmed. Power names, led by Bloom Energy (BE) at about 8% higher in afternoon trading, rallied on Musk’s comments, and Morgan Stanley raised its Constellation target to $378 from $369 the same day. Shares remain 33% below the intraday 52-week high of $406.04, set October 29, 2025, and the bigger shift for Constellation came on October 9, at FERC.
FERC Rejected PJM’s Data Center Plan Three Days After Google Signed
Google, a unit of Alphabet (GOOGL), signed a 20-year, 890-megawatt uprate deal with Constellation on October 6, and the companies called it a direct response to PJM’s “Bring Your Own Power” proposal. On October 9, FERC rejected most of that framework, including its interim curtailment service and “bring your own new capacity” rules. FERC said parts of the plan intruded on state authority over retail rates and appeared to discriminate against large loads. PJM’s separate backstop procurement, which FERC also sent back for fixes, missed its planned September 30 start.
That is the opposite of what management wanted. On the August 6 call, Joe Dominguez, chairman, president and CEO, said “the worst thing for deal execution is ambiguity and uncertainty,” and he hoped for regulatory clarity by year-end. Management added that contracts already signed did not depend on the PJM and FERC outcomes. Google’s pricing is undisclosed, so the rejection’s effect on that deal cannot be measured from outside.
Since September 30, TIKR’s tally shows one more Buy, one more Hold and a new Underperform. The mean target slipped to around $338 from around $343, below Morgan Stanley’s new $378.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on Constellation Energy. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Constellation Energy, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Constellation Energy’s Analyst Ratings
Musk’s Bottleneck Favors Plants Already on the Grid
Musk said SpaceX plans to add 20 gigawatts of power and cooling by the end of 2027 from many sources beyond gas turbines. He also said turbine makers face 12- to 18-month delays for blade and vane metals, according to TechCrunch. He did not name Constellation, and nothing ties SpaceX’s plan to its plants.
Dominguez made a related case in August. “We have a peak capacity concern, not an energy concern,” he said, arguing that plants and wires sit underused outside a handful of peak hours. Later on the call, he said that if every data center must wait for new plants to be built, “we might as well hand over the keys to China.” Uprates are not a quick fix either, since Google’s start by 2028 and finish before the end of 2032. The near-term advantage is the output Constellation’s reactors already produce.
The last quarter was mixed. GAAP EPS of $1.42 missed the $2.30 estimate, and free cash flow was negative $118 million, though adjusted EPS of $2.55 beat the $2.28 estimate. Shares fell 1.52% on August 6.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $270.74
- Target Price (Mid): ~$465
- Potential Total Return: ~72%
- Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
The mid case is the model’s central scenario, measured from the $270.74 close. A total return of around 72% over about 4.2 years compounds to around 14% a year. The stock traded at around 22 times forward (NTM) earnings as of October 21. Upside comes from more long-term contracts. Downside comes from a slow PJM rewrite that delays new deals, or from slips at Crane, which targets a second-half 2027 restart, or at the Google uprates.
Conclusion
Third-quarter results, expected in early November, should show whether the FERC rejection slowed contracting. Holding the $11.50 to $12.50 guidance and adding signed megawatts beyond the Google deal would point to no. PJM’s co-location response, which Dominguez expected around November, is the other date to watch.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
