Key Stats for MPWR Stock
- Past-Month Performance: 26%
- 52-Week Range: $439 to $1,250
- Valuation Model Target Price: $1,657
- Implied Upside: 37%
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What Happened?
Monolithic Power Systems stock rose about 26% over the past month, finishing near $1,206 per share, as investors reacted to strong earnings follow-through, a series of analyst price target revisions, and constructive institutional positioning. Shares advanced steadily over the period rather than spiking on a single day, pointing to sustained demand and improving sentiment.
The stock moved higher over the past month after Monolithic Power Systems reported record results that reinforced confidence in accelerating demand and improving visibility.
The company posted record Q4 2025 revenue of $751 million, up 20.8% year over year, and capped a 14th consecutive year of growth with full-year revenue reaching $2.8 billion, up 26.4%.
Management commentary added further support to the move. CFO Bernie Blegen said the company is seeing “some fairly pronounced changes in ordering patterns,” noting that book-to-bill was well above 1 and backlog is now extending into Q2 and Q3 of 2026, reflecting longer customer lead times and stronger commitments tied to enterprise data and broader data center demand.
Analyst actions added to the upside. Wells Fargo raised its price target to $1,350 from $1,200, reiterating an Overweight rating, while Needham lifted its target to $1,300 and maintained a Buy rating.
Although Rosenblatt raised its target to $1,000 while keeping a Neutral rating, the broader analyst consensus remains Buy, with average targets clustered around the low $1,200s, keeping investor focus on earnings durability rather than short-term valuation concerns.
Institutional activity also leaned constructive. Candriam S.C.A. increased its stake by 6.9% to 85,907 shares, valued at about $79 million, while BI Asset Management and Penserra Capital Management both nearly doubled their positions in the third quarter.
Although Envestnet Asset Management trimmed its stake by 6%, institutional ownership remains elevated at 93.46%, reinforcing confidence in the company’s long-term positioning and supporting the stock’s move higher over the past month.
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Is MPWR Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 19.9%
- Operating Margins: 36.5%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 44x
Revenue growth expectations are supported by expanding demand for high-efficiency power management solutions across AI servers, automotive electrification, and industrial automation, where MPWR continues to increase content per system rather than relying on cyclical volume recovery.
Margin durability remains a central driver as product mix shifts toward higher-voltage, module-based, and custom solutions that carry stronger pricing power, longer design cycles, and deeper customer integration, helping protect profitability as the business scales.
Data center demand tied to AI workloads stands out as a meaningful growth lever, with customers prioritizing power efficiency, thermal performance, and higher current density at the rack and system level. MPWR’s growing exposure to enterprise data, optical modules, switches, and memory-related power solutions broadens its participation in infrastructure spending beyond a single use case.
Automotive programs add another layer of visibility, supported by longer platform lifecycles, rising semiconductor content per vehicle, and the adoption of 48-volt and zonal architectures that extend revenue duration well beyond initial design wins.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $1,657, implying about 37% total upside by 2026, indicating the stock appears undervalued at current prices.
At current levels, Monolithic Power Systems appears undervalued, with performance through 2026 driven by sustained design-win momentum, mix-driven margin strength, backlog-supported visibility, and deeper penetration into power-intensive end markets rather than a broad semiconductor cycle rebound.
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