Key Stats for Mondelez Stock
- Past week’s performance: -7.3%
- 52-week range: $100 to $143
- Valuation model target price: $155
- Implied upside: 26.5% over 2.8 years
Value your favorite stocks like Mondelez with 5 years of analysts’ forecasts using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
Mondelez International (MDLZ) moved higher this week as investors waited for Q1 results after the market close on April 28. The stock traded near $58, still below its 52-week high of $71. The tone is cautious because investors want to see whether snack demand can stabilize.
The main issue is cocoa inflation. Mondelez raised prices to offset higher cocoa costs, but Reuters reported that consumers have pushed back, especially in the U.S. That has pressured volumes as shoppers look for cheaper options.
Q4 showed the tradeoff clearly. Revenue rose 9.3% to $10.5 billion, but pricing added 9 points while volume/mix declined 4.8 percentage points. That means sales growth was driven more by price than by selling more snacks.
Management expects 2026 organic revenue growth of flat to 2% and adjusted EPS growth of flat to 5%. That is a muted outlook for a company with global brands like Oreo, Cadbury, Ritz, and Toblerone. Going forward, the stock will likely depend on whether Q1 shows better volumes without more margin pressure.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Mondelez (It’s free) >>>
Is Mondelez Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 3%
- Operating Margins: 13.2%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 19x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $72, implying 25.3% total upside from the current share price and an 8.8% annualized return over the next 2.7 years.
Mondelez looks modestly undervalued, but not deeply cheap. The expected annualized return is below 10%, so the valuation points to a steady recovery case rather than a high-upside setup. Investors are paying for global snack brands, pricing power, and dividend income.
The business still has growth, but margins are under pressure. Revenue rose 5.8% in 2025 to $38.5 billion, while operating margin fell to 9.4%. That shows higher input costs and weaker volume can offset headline sales growth.
The valuation depends on volume recovery. If Mondelez can rebuild demand after price hikes, revenue growth can become healthier. If consumers keep trading down, the market may keep valuing the stock below its historical premium.
What’s Driving Mondelez Stock Going Forward?
The biggest catalyst is Q1 earnings on April 28. Investors will watch volume trends, gross margin, and management’s view on cocoa costs. These figures will show whether the company is moving past the price-driven slowdown.
Consumer demand is another key driver. Mondelez said U.S. consumer confidence remains weak, and value-seeking shoppers are moving toward value and club stores. That matters because U.S. biscuits have been a soft spot for the company.
Cocoa sourcing and supply chain investments also matter. Mondelez said it sources nearly all cocoa through its Cocoa Life program, and it is investing CHF 65 million to expand Toblerone production in Switzerland. These moves support supply security and premium chocolate capacity.
Capital returns remain part of the setup. Mondelez paid a $0.50 quarterly dividend in March, and the dividend yield is 3.6%. If earnings stabilize, the dividend and buybacks could help support investor confidence.
Estimate a company’s fair value instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>
Should You Invest in Mondelez?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up MDLZ, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track MDLZ alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Analyze Mondelez stock on TIKR Free→
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
