Key Takeaways
- Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mandeep Singh says Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Oracle hold a combined backlog of $2 trillion, and that the first three will beat consensus as their clouds speed up over the next three or four quarters.
- The clouds can only grow as fast as new capacity comes online, so this spending has revenue to show for it in a way Meta’s doesn’t.
- The four companies’ latest reported backlogs add up to about $2.35 trillion, and AWS and Google Cloud are already selling capacity for 2027 and 2028.
- Power and chips are the main risk, and the first tests are Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s reports on Oct. 28 and Amazon’s on Oct. 29.
Meta Platforms (META) fell last week after making clear it’s gearing up to spend a lot more on AI next year. Now Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) all report this week, and investors are deciding whether to punish their spending too.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh expects the opposite. On Bloomberg Intelligence’s podcast on Thursday, he pointed out that Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Oracle (ORCL) have a combined backlog of $2 trillion, and “a lot of that backlog will get converted to revenue.”
His call for the big three: “their cloud businesses are gonna accelerate for the next three or four quarters and they will beat their numbers consensus numbers handily.”
That’s a big claim to make days before all three report.
The cloud makes the difference
Singh’s point is that a cloud business turns AI spending into revenue investors can see. If you can say “my cloud business is now growing 100% whereas previously it was growing 30%, that’s a great story to tell and then raise your capex because you’re showing the ROI.”
Meta has no cloud to rent out, so its payoff waits on agentic AI, which Singh expects will make money eventually.
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The $2 trillion holds up
Add up the latest backlogs each company has reported:
- Microsoft: $678 billion of commercial contracts at June 30
- Oracle: $664 billion at Aug. 31
- Google Cloud: $514 billion at June 30
- AWS: $496 billion at June 30
That’s about $2.35 trillion. Microsoft’s and Oracle’s totals include some contracts outside the cloud, so Singh’s round $2 trillion is fair.
And none of the three can build fast enough to work through it.
Amazon is already selling 2028
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said on an Andreessen Horowitz podcast on Friday that “2027 is largely sold out.” Then: “A good chunk of 2028 is sold out.”
AWS revenue rose 37% to $42.2 billion in the second quarter, its fastest growth in 18 quarters, and its backlog jumped from $364 billion to $496 billion in three months.
That gives AWS plenty of room to lift Amazon’s total revenue, which has grown between 9% and 12% a year since 2022.
Google can barely take 2027 orders
Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai put it plainly on the Big Technology Podcast last week: “We are capacity constrained on a daily basis.” As for a customer asking for compute in 2027 today, “that is incredibly difficult to do.”
Even so, Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8 billion in the second quarter, up from 63% growth in the first quarter and 34% a year earlier. That’s most of the way to Singh’s 30%-to-100% story already.
And it’s what has to pay for this.
Alphabet expects to spend $195 billion to $205 billion this year, more than double 2025’s $91.5 billion.
Microsoft keeps clearing its own bar
Azure grew 43% in the June quarter, against management’s guide of 39% to 40%. That was its third straight quarter ahead of guidance, and management guides about 45% for the September quarter.
Consensus expects Microsoft’s revenue to keep climbing through fiscal 2028 (its years end in June).
That’s growth of about 18% in fiscal 2027 and 20% in fiscal 2028, close to fiscal 2026’s 18%. If Azure keeps outrunning its guide as new capacity lands, those estimates have room to rise.
Power sets the pace
A backlog only turns into revenue as fast as power and chips arrive, and some of Amazon’s new AI servers are reportedly waiting on power. Much of the backlog also sits with a few AI labs: OpenAI alone made up about 45% of Microsoft’s in December 2025.
Still, Singh’s call looks right to me. The capacity crunch that worries investors is the best reason to expect beats: new data centers come online with customers already signed, so growth speeds up as capacity lands. That makes these three’s spending far easier to defend than Meta’s.
Of course, it all depends on the power showing up on time. The first tests are Azure’s growth against that 45% guide on Wednesday, and whether AWS holds near its 37% pace on Thursday.
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