Key Stats for MARA Holdings Stock
- Current Price: $9.91
- Street Target: ~$19
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What Happened?
MARA Holdings (MARA) closed at $9.91 on October 8, 2026, down 4.34%. That left it 12.53% below its September 30 close of $11.33. The whole group fell that day. CoinDesk tied the slide in former miners turned AI data center builders to worry over the IPO of Nvidia-backed Firmus. Treasury yields spiked early in the session, and bitcoin briefly fell below $81,000. Hut 8 (HUT) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) were down 10.7% and 8.8% intraday.
MARA’s own test sits in its investor relations materials: management has guided to two AI leases by year-end. Clear Street noted on October 2 that MARA still needed its first one.
Thiel Won’t Announce LOIs, and Two Rivals Have Already Signed
At the H.C. Wainwright conference on September 14, Chairman and CEO Fred Thiel reaffirmed the target. “So we don’t announce LOIs or exclusivities around leases, but we feel very confident about signing the 2 leases by year-end,” he said. MARA doesn’t disclose letters of intent (LOIs), so the first public sign of progress will likely be a signed lease.
Two other panelists had already signed:
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Chairman and CEO Matt Schultz described a 20-year, $6.6 billion triple-net lease (the tenant covers taxes, insurance, and upkeep), worth about $330 million a year.
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Co-founder Russell Cann said its announced AMD (AMD) deal covers about 500 megawatts. Core Scientific also agreed to give AMD the next 2,000 megawatts at three sites, which Cann expects AMD to take “unless the market just really goes south.”
Thiel is pricing for a mix of tenants. As an illustration, he gave a yield on cost (annual operating income divided by build cost) of 10% for a hyperscaler on a triple-net lease and 15% for a neocloud, a smaller AI cloud provider, with enterprise clients higher.
He also answered JPMorgan’s mid-September Underweight call, which faulted the Starwood joint venture for leaving MARA only part of the value. With projects financed 80% by debt, Thiel said MARA’s capital beyond the sites it contributes is “fairly de minimis.” That matters because Clear Street puts build costs at or above $12 million per megawatt. MARA’s LTM levered free cash flow was -$1,168.09 million.
The Long Ridge gas plant in Ohio hasn’t closed. MARA’s latest update, on August 6, said the deal was still awaiting approval from FERC, the federal power regulator. Under MARA’s Q1 10-Q, the deal can be terminated if it has not closed by November 30, 2026. That date extends to June 30, 2027, if certain regulatory conditions remain unsatisfied.
Clear Street kept a Hold rating and $10 target on October 2. It named a first signed lease and the Long Ridge close as its next milestones, and said bitcoin may fund further HPC development. On October 9, Lookonchain flagged 996 BTC moving from a MARA-labeled wallet to Galaxy Digital (GLXY). That is a tracked transfer.
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The Street Cut MARA’s Revenue Estimates and Raised Its Target
- Street Target (Mean): ~$19 (13 estimates, September 30)
- FY2027 Revenue Consensus: ~$805 million from 9 analysts (vs. ~ $1.0 billion from 13 analysts at March 31)
- NTM EV/Revenue: ~8x (CleanSpark ~8x, Core Scientific ~9x)
- NTM EV/EBITDA: ~9x (CleanSpark ~33x, Core Scientific ~17x)
- Ratings (September 30): 9 Buy or Outperform, 4 Hold, 2 below Hold
This follows a weak Q2. Revenue of $174.88 million missed the $209.62 million estimate by 16.57%, and shares fell 5.25% on August 7.
Since March 31, the FY2027 revenue consensus has fallen almost 20%, now drawn from a smaller pool of analysts. Over the same period, the mean target rose from around $17 to around $19 as target coverage grew from 11 to 13. FY2028 consensus of around $606 million sits below the FY2026 figure of around $707 million. The only estimate that jumps is one analyst’s FY2029 figure of around $2.1 billion. The target, therefore, appears to rest on a value that most revenue models don’t yet include.
On EBITDA, MARA looks cheap next to CleanSpark and Core Scientific. The estimates behind that multiple are thin and widely spread, though: for Q4 2026, five analysts average about $197 million while the median is about $22 million. On EV/revenue, MARA trades in line with both peers.
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November 30, Then December 31
If FERC hasn’t cleared Long Ridge by November 30, the deal’s outside date can extend to June 30, 2027. December 31 is the lease deadline.
Two signed leases with named tenants, near the 10% yield on cost Thiel cited for hyperscalers, would give analysts revenue to model behind the ~$19 average target. One lease or none could leave MARA priced closer to JPMorgan’s $11.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
