Key Stats for Vistra Stock
- Current Price: $156.14
- Target Price (Mid): ~$248
- Street Target: ~$210
- Potential Total Return: ~59%
- Annualized IRR: ~12% / year
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What Happened?
Vistra (VST) fell 6.35% to $156.14 on October 8, ending a five-session run that had added 20.5% from the September 30 close. Power producers fell together: Constellation Energy (CEG) dropped 4.85% while the utilities sector slipped 0.28%, with market commentary pointing to profit-taking after the rally and regulatory uncertainty in the PJM Interconnection market. That morning, Benzinga had flagged Vistra as overbought after the run.
The run included the Energy Department’s conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion for Vistra’s Ohio and Pennsylvania nuclear plants. It also included a BMO Capital target cut to $210 from $231 on October 5. The next test is the third-quarter report on November 6. Vistra guides on adjusted EBITDA in its investor relations materials, and that distinction decides how to read the print.
Revenue Missed in Four of Five Quarters. The Stock Barely Moved
Revenue missed consensus in four of the last five quarters, by 10% to 27%. EBITDA beat in four of the same five, by under 1% to about 7%. In the second quarter, revenue was $4.017 billion against an estimate of about $5.52 billion, while TIKR-basis EBITDA was $1.744 billion against about $1.64 billion. The stock fell 0.56% that day.
Across all five report dates, one-day moves ranged from a 2.74% loss to a 2.36% gain. The market has been reading EBITDA, not revenue. For the third quarter, five analysts expect revenue of around $7.3 billion, up about 46% from a year earlier, and eight expect EBITDA of around $2.1 billion, up about 34%.
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Analysts Cut 2027 Revenue. Management Expects Load Then
Since June 30, consensus 2027 revenue has fallen about 4% and 2028 about 3%. Estimates for 2029 and 2030 edged higher, though coverage of those years rose from four analysts to six over the same stretch. On the August 7 call, CFO Kris Moldovan said current ERCOT forward curves for 2027 were meaningfully lower than in October 2025.
CEO Jim Burke said Vistra’s May 2024 forecast called for 115 to 120 gigawatts of ERCOT load in 2030: “That’s still what we’re projecting.” He said the new load was expected to hook up “in the ‘27, ‘28 time frame,” adding, “So 2026 being soft is not that big of a surprise to us.” Analysts are cutting the same two years that management expects the load to arrive.
Moldovan also said Vistra’s forecast shows “more than $10 billion of available cash in 2026 and 2027.” That leaves about $2 billion to $2.5 billion unallocated through 2027 after buybacks, dividends, and growth spending.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $156.14
- Target Price (Mid): ~$248
- Potential Total Return: ~59%
- Annualized IRR: ~12% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Vistra stock (It’s free!) >>>
Under the inputs used here, TIKR’s mid case sits above the Street’s mean target of about $210. Behind that mean are 16 Buy, 4 Outperform, and 1 Underperform ratings, with targets from $106 to $305. The path runs through earnings: analysts expect normalized EPS to rise from $4.76 in 2025 to around $13 by 2030, though only six analysts estimate 2030 revenue. The main risk is that the 2027 and 2028 estimate cuts spread to later years. If Vistra keeps beating EBITDA estimates as it did in four of five quarters, the near-term earnings line has room to hold.
Conclusion
Third-quarter EBITDA at or above the roughly $2.1 billion consensus would back the later-year estimates. A miss there, rather than on revenue, would suggest the 2027 cuts are not finished. Moldovan said 2026 and 2027 guidance updates would come on that call, but the 2027 update would likely wait if Cogentrix, expected to close in late 2026, has not closed.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
