Key Stats for Arm Holdings Stock
- Current Price: $275.29
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,375
- Street Target: ~$291
- Potential Total Return: ~400%
- Annualized IRR: ~43% / year
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What Happened?
Arm Holdings (ARM) closed at $275.29 on October 8, 2026, down 6.48%. The chip selloff deepened after the Financial Times reported at midday that OpenAI’s annualized revenue was close to $50 billion at the end of September. Media reports had put it near $70 billion, but a source told CNN that figure did not come from OpenAI. A person familiar with the matter told CNBC the earlier number counted gross revenue from OpenAI’s partners.
Arm was already down 3.28% in premarket trading on tech weakness and its Qualcomm trial. NVIDIA (NVDA) fell 2.9% and Intel (INTC) 5.3%, and Arm’s five-year beta of 3.77 partly explains its steeper drop. Arm’s July 29 earnings call, posted in its investor relations materials, shows two places OpenAI connects to the business.
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OpenAI Signed On for the AGI CPU, but the Order Size Is Unknown
Arm launched its own data center processor, the AGI CPU, in March. On the call, CEO Rene Haas said the customers signed up at its Arm Everywhere event included “folks like Cerebras and OpenAI, which were largely around head node type applications.” Meta Platforms (META) and Cloudflare (NET) cover agentic and general-purpose servers, and Haas also named Oracle (ORCL). The call gave no order size for OpenAI.
Arm has secured capacity for a $1 billion opportunity across fiscal 2027 and 2028, against demand it puts at more than double that. Haas said even small additions are hard to find: “There are a lot of folks just trying to secure extra supply up to $50 million.” In theory, a smaller OpenAI order frees chips for other buyers. Not everyone is convinced Arm can deliver: Artisan Developing World Fund’s third-quarter letter cited questions about Arm’s “ability to effectively meet demand for its own chip.”
SoftBank Supplied 33.6% of Arm’s Fiscal Q1 Licensing Revenue
The bigger link runs through Arm’s majority owner. Chief Financial Officer Jason Child said Arm’s technology licensing and design services agreement with SoftBank Group contributed $193 million of the $574 million in fiscal Q1 license revenue. He expects around $200 million a quarter for the rest of the year.
SoftBank has invested heavily in OpenAI, so OpenAI’s funding story reaches Arm’s own parent, not just a chip buyer. Child gave no sign on the July call that the arrangement would change. Fiscal Q2 licensing is guided up about 30%, against royalties up in the low teens.
Qualcomm (QCOM) is a separate overhang. Its suit seeks to halt royalties to Arm for up to five years, but the judge has not ruled on whether that penalty is enforceable, and Arm denies the claims. The case was set to go to the jury on October 9. The Street’s mean target of around $291 sits about 6% above the close, with 21 Buy, 8 Outperform, 12 Hold, 1 Underperform, and 1 Sell ratings.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $275.29
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,375
- Potential Total Return: ~400%
- Annualized IRR: ~43% / year
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TIKR’s mid-case targets around $1,375 by March 31, 2031. That’s about 400% total return, or 43% a year over 4.5 years from $275.29. For context, and not as model inputs, Street consensus has normalized EPS rising from $1.77 in fiscal 2026 to around $10 in fiscal 2031. It also has normalized net margin widening from 38.4% to around 44%.
The risk this selloff exposed is concentration, since OpenAI and SoftBank touch both the silicon and licensing lines. Upside would come from AGI CPU supply beyond $1 billion. Downside would come from SoftBank licensing falling well below $200 million a quarter, at the same time a Qualcomm ruling cuts royalties.
Conclusion
Arm reports fiscal Q2 results after the close on November 4. The number to watch is SoftBank’s licensing contribution. Around $200 million keeps the July outlook intact, while a sharp drop would suggest pressure at the parent is reaching Arm.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
