Key Stats for Lockheed Martin Stock
- 52-Week Range: $410 to $692
- Current Price: $524
- Street Mean Target: $625
- Street High Target: $756
- Analyst Consensus: 4 Buys / 2 Outperforms / 14 Holds / 1 Sell
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $797
Lockheed Martin Stock Is Winning Contracts Faster Than the Market Is Pricing Them
Lockheed Martin (LMT) has secured a cascade of contract awards, foreign military sales approvals, and production milestones over the past several weeks, underscoring the demand surge its missile and fire control division is riding into the back half of 2026.
The U.S. approved a $1.5 billion sale of five MH-60R Seahawk helicopters to New Zealand, made by Lockheed Martin’s Sikorsky unit, as Wellington ramps defense spending toward 2% of GDP.
The State Department separately approved Lockheed as principal contractor on an $842 million joint air-to-surface standoff missile sale to Denmark.
Canada ordered 26 HIMARS rocket systems from Lockheed, including a 10-year industrial and economic plan targeting domestic sustainment aligned with Canadian procurement policy.
Israel gave final approval to purchase a fourth F-35 squadron from Lockheed as part of a broader tens-of-billions force buildup, following the operational performance of F-35s in the Iran conflict.
Lockheed Martin’s GRIZZLY containerized launcher intercepted a test drone using a JAGM missile in a first-ever demonstration, with hardware-in-the-loop integration completed in under 45 days, opening a low-cost counter-drone pathway using munitions already in global service.
The company also opened an 88,000-square-foot Next Generation Interceptor production facility in Courtland, Alabama, and broke ground on an 87,000-square-foot Munitions Production Center in Troy for THAAD interceptors, part of a more than $9 billion investment plan through 2030 to modernize or build across more than 20 facilities.
Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin was named preferred combat system integrator for Australia’s future Virginia Class submarine fleet under the AUKUS partnership, extending its footprint into the decade-long naval buildout across the Pacific.
The U.S. Navy awarded Lockheed a $200.8 million Aegis Combat System training contract extending support for six foreign military sales customers through 2031.
In Q1 2026 earnings call, CEO Jim Taiclet announced a $1.5 billion contract with the Peruvian Air Force for 12 Block 70 F-16 fighters, calling it “the first F-35 direct commercial sale contract in decades” and noting it “broadens our footprint in the modernizing Latin American region.”
Taiclet confirmed PAC-3 production is already up more than 60% from two years ago, with the company targeting a tripling of annual Patriot output to 2,000 units and a quadrupling of THAAD interceptors to 400 units annually under seven-year framework agreements backed by undefinitized contract actions already in place.
The $4.8 billion fully funded undefinitized PAC-3 contract signed in April is the first framework agreement to move from term sheet to legally spendable authorization, with the definitized multi-year contract expected within the next two to three months.
The initial presidential budget request includes increased F-35 quantities, with the fiscal year 2027 ask of 85 jets representing a significant step up from 47 the prior year, directly validating sustainment as the fastest-growing segment within Aeronautics.
Why LMT Analysts Hold Steady at $625 While the Production Ramp Points Higher
Lockheed Martin stock’s revenue came in at $18.02 billion in Q1 2026, essentially flat year over year, reflecting a shortened fiscal period relative to Q1 2025.
The Street is not looking at Q1 in isolation: consensus estimates call for Lockheed Martin stock’s revenue to reach around $19 billion in Q2 2026, around $20 billion in Q3, and around $22 billion in Q4, building to a full-year growth rate consistent with management’s mid-single-digit 2026 outlook.
EPS came in at $6.44 in Q1 2026, a decline of 11.5% year over year, driven by mark-to-market losses on deferred compensation plans and program-level charges on F-16 and C-130 in Aeronautics — both of which CFO Evan Scott described as transient, with F-16 deliveries resuming within weeks and C-130 back on track.
Looking forward, consensus sees Lockheed Martin stock’s EPS reaching around $7 in Q2 2026, around $8 in Q3, and around $9 in Q4, a sharp acceleration driven by PAC-3 production ramp contributions and improved Aeronautics margins as F-16 and C-130 issues resolve.
Free cash flow was negative $291 million in Q1 2026, largely from working capital timing tied to an ERP system transition in one business area, with Scott confirming the impact “will be resolved by the second quarter” and the full-year guide of $6.5 billion to $7 billion remaining intact.
The EBITDA trajectory is the most direct expression of the ramp thesis: Q1 2026 EBITDA came in at $2.46 billion, and consensus projects it climbing to around $3 billion in Q2, around $3 billion in Q3, and around $3 billion in Q4, with EBITDA margins holding in the 14% range throughout.
The analyst consensus as of June 5, 2026, sits at 4 Buys, 2 Outperforms, 14 Holds, and 1 Sell, with a mean price target of around $625, implying roughly 19% upside from the current price, and a high target of around $756.
Citigroup, in a May note, identified the recent selloff in aerospace and defense as overdone and named Lockheed Martin as one of its positive near-term calls, citing attractive valuations and sector tailwinds.
The weight of Holds in the consensus reflects two legitimate uncertainties: the classified programs in Aeronautics and MFC where charges could return, and the cadence of Congressional appropriations needed to convert framework agreements into definitized multi-year contracts.
Lockheed Martin stock looks undervalued at current levels relative to what the framework-backed production ramp implies for the 2027 and 2028 revenue and EBITDA run rate, and the Hold-heavy consensus is a function of timing uncertainty on contract definitization, not a rejection of the growth thesis.
RTX Leads LMT on Quarterly EBITDA, but the Gap Is Narrowing as the Munitions Ramp Builds
RTX Corporation (RTX) posted $3.48 billion in EBITDA in Q1 2026 against Lockheed Martin stock’s $2.46 billion, a gap that reflects RTX’s broader commercial aerospace exposure rather than a structural advantage in defense.
Consensus estimates project Lockheed Martin stock’s EBITDA climbing to around $3 billion in Q4 2026, closing meaningfully on RTX’s projected around $4 billion for the same period, as PAC-3 and THAAD production volume flows through Missiles and Fire Control.
Meanwhile, Northrop Grumman (NOC) posted $1.39 billion in Q1 2026 EBITDA, well below both LMT and RTX, with estimates showing a modest recovery to around $2 billion by Q4 2026 — a trajectory that underscores LMT’s scale advantage in the munitions ramp cycle.
Is Lockheed Martin Stock Undervalued in 2026? TIKR’s $797 Model Suggests a Longer Runway
TIKR’s base case values Lockheed Martin at approximately $797 by December 2030, implying around 52% total return from the current price of around $524, or roughly 10% annualized over approximately 4.6 years.
The model’s mid-case assumes revenue growth of around 4% annually through 2035, a net income margin near 10%, and EPS growth of around 9% per year, with a modest contraction in the P/E multiple of around 0.3% annually, producing a 2035 stock price of around $1,012 and a total return of around 93%.
If execution on the production ramp falls short of framework targets and revenue growth comes in at the low-case assumption of around 4%, Lockheed Martin stock reaches around $827 by 2035, delivering a total return of around 58% and an annualized return of around 6%.
If the mid-teens MFC growth trajectory Evan Scott described materializes in full and net income margins expand toward 10%, the high case puts Lockheed Martin stock at around $1,202 by 2035, a total return of around 130% and an IRR of around 10%.
The scenario range makes the asymmetry plain: even in the conservative case, the stock more than doubles over the decade, and the base case is anchored to growth assumptions well below what the current framework agreement pipeline implies for Missiles and Fire Control alone.
Is Lockheed Martin Stock a Buy in 2026?
Lockheed Martin stock carries a Hold-weighted consensus as of June 2026, with 4 Buys, 2 Outperforms, and 14 Holds against a mean target of around $625.
The investment case is not whether the growth is real — it is, backed by seven-year PAC-3 and THAAD framework agreements already in undefinitized contract action.
The key variable is how quickly definitized multi-year contracts clear Congress and begin converting backlog into recognized revenue.
What Is the Price Target for LMT Stock?
The Street mean target for Lockheed Martin stock is around $625 as of June 5, 2026, implying roughly 19% upside from the current price of around $524.
The high target is around $756. TIKR’s base case model extends further, placing a mid-case target of approximately $797 by December 2030 based on around 4% annual revenue growth and around 9% EPS growth compounding through the decade.
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