Key Takeaways for CAVA Stock as of June 2026
- Analysts rate CAVA stock 14 buys, 3 outperforms, 9 holds, and 1 sell, with a street mean target of $92, implying around 3% upside from the current price of $89.
- TIKR’s mid-case model values CAVA at around $213 by December 2030, implying around 139% total return from current levels, or roughly 21% annualized.
- CAVA delivered 9.7% same-restaurant sales growth in Q1 2026, driven by 6.8% guest traffic — a result that came in well above the analyst estimate of 5.95% and prompted management to raise full-year guidance on nearly every line.
CAVA Beats Q1 2026 on Revenue and EBITDA, Raises Full-Year Guidance as Traffic Accelerates
CAVA Group (CAVA) delivered its strongest relative quarter in over a year on May 19, 2026, posting Q1 revenue of $438.27 million, a 32.1% year-over-year increase that cleared Wall Street’s $418.62 million estimate by nearly $20 million.
The headline traffic number was 6.8%, positive guest count growth in a quarter where most fast-casual peers saw flat to negative traffic, making the result structurally significant rather than cyclical.
Same-restaurant sales grew 9.7%, well above the analyst consensus of 5.95%, with 6.8 percentage points of that driven purely by volume rather than price.
CAVA opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, ending with 459 locations across 29 states, a 20.2% year-over-year increase in unit count, with new restaurant productivity running above 100% of mature unit volumes.
The company launched its first-ever seafood offering, Pomegranate-Glazed Salmon, nationally at the start of Q2 2026, a protein-rich extension of the Mediterranean diet that CEO Brett Schulman described as a “culinary milestone” executed after a rigorous stage-gate testing process.
On the Q1 call, Schulman pointed to the breadth of the performance, citing “great strength in every region of the country” and outperformance across all income cohorts as evidence of structural demand rather than a single promotional catalyst.
CFO Tricia Tolivar also confirmed on the call that Q2 same-restaurant sales are “tracking in line with the first quarter and tracking above our revised full-year guidance,” a statement that effectively front-loaded the bull case for the August earnings report.
Management raised its full-year 2026 guidance to 75–77 net new restaurant openings, same-restaurant sales growth of 4.5%–6.5%, and adjusted EBITDA of $181 million to $191 million, up from prior guidance of $176 million to $184 million.
The guidance raise arrived even as management chose to absorb near-term cost headwinds from salmon protein costs, energy price uncertainty, and fuel surcharges rather than pass them through to customers, a deliberate long-term brand decision Schulman has made consistently since the company went public.
Analysts Add Buys on CAVA Stock After Q1 Beat, but the Street Mean Target Understates the Growth Runway
CAVA stock carries 14 buys, 3 outperforms, 9 holds, and 1 sell from analysts as of June 2026, with a street mean target of $92 and a street high target of $110, a range that reflects genuine conviction divergence rather than a unified directional call.
CAVA’s Q1 revenue of $438.27 million grew 32% year-over-year, beating the $418.62 million estimate, while adjusted EBITDA of $61.73 million grew 38% year-over-year and cleared the $57.31 million consensus by around 8%.
The EBITDA margin of 14% in Q1 expanded 57 basis points year-over-year, and the full-year guidance midpoint of $186 million represents around 30% EBITDA growth at the company’s stated revenue trajectory.
Meanwhile, Q2 forward estimates show revenue of around $360 million, representing 28% growth year-over-year, with EBITDA expected at around $50 million and EBITDA margins of roughly 15%, a sequential margin step-down that reflects the salmon cost headwind management explicitly guided for.
UBS upgraded also CAVA stock to buy on June 10, raising its price target to $90 from $85 and citing the company’s “solid same-store sales performance” as “increasingly scarce” relative to fast-casual peers in the current macro environment.
The open question dividing bulls from holds is whether the 4.5%–6.5% full-year same-restaurant sales guidance is a sandbagged floor or a genuine ceiling, because if Q2 comps track in line with Q1’s 9.7%, another guidance raise becomes the base case and the $92 mean target reprices upward.
Is CAVA Stock Undervalued in 2026? TIKR’s $213 Model Makes the Case
TIKR’s mid-case values CAVA at approximately $213 by December 2030, implying around 139% total return from the current price of $89, or roughly 21% annualized over the next 4.5 years.
The foundation for that target is a revenue CAGR of around 19% through 2030, consistent with the trajectory CAVA stock has already demonstrated and now re-accelerated through a quarter where new unit volumes are running at or above mature levels, system-wide AUVs have crossed $3 million, and the 500th restaurant opening is expected before year-end.
CAVA stock’s Q2 same-restaurant sales tracking in line with Q1’s 9.7% print, as Tolivar confirmed, means the 4.5%–6.5% full-year guidance range has significant upside buffer built in, and if a second guidance raise materializes in August, the EBITDA trajectory that underpins TIKR’s target firms up ahead of schedule.
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