Key Stats for HIMS Stock
- 52-Week Range: $13.74 – $70.43
- Current Price: $35.47
- Street Mean Target: ~$27
- TIKR Model Target: ~$140 at ~35% annualized IRR
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $608.1M (+4% YoY)
- Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $44M (vs. $91M prior year)
- Q1 2026 Net Loss: $92.1M
- Full-Year 2026 Revenue Guidance: up to $3.0B
From $70 to $13 and Back: What Actually Happened
Understanding where Hims & Hers (HIMS) stands today requires understanding what happened between October 2025 and March 2026. The stock peaked near $70 on the back of a rapidly scaling compounded semaglutide business, offering patients $49-per-month weight-loss injections at a fraction of Novo Nordisk’s branded price.
When the FDA declared the semaglutide shortage over in February 2026, that business collapsed almost overnight. Novo Nordisk filed suit, the Department of Health and Human Services referred the company to the DOJ, and the stock fell 78% to a low of $13.74 on February 27.
The recovery since then has been driven by a single strategic pivot: a March 9 partnership with Novo Nordisk that allows Hims to distribute branded Wegovy and Ozempic directly through its platform. The company trades near $35 today, still 46% below its peak, but the business model question has shifted from survival to execution.
Can Hims convert its subscriber base and telehealth infrastructure into a durable distribution platform for branded GLP-1s, and can it do so while rebuilding the margins it sacrificed during the compounding era?
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The Platform Underneath the GLP-1 Story
The part of Hims that tends to get overlooked in GLP-1 coverage is the core subscription business. Revenue grew from $272 million in 2021 to $2.35 billion in 2025, a compound growth rate of around 65% over three years.
That trajectory was not built on GLP-1s alone. Hims operates across men’s and women’s health specialties, including hair loss, sexual health, skin care, mental health, and primary care, with a recurring subscription model and a consumer brand that has genuine scale.
The gross margin chart clearly shows the cost of the GLP-1 chapter. Margins peaked at 82% in 2023 before the compounded semaglutide ramp pulled them down to 74% by 2025, as the physical product costs of compounded injectables diluted the platform’s otherwise software-like economics.
With compounded products now removed, the underlying margin profile should return to the 77% to 82% range as branded GLP-1 distribution reflects different economics and the specialty business mix reasserts itself.
Q1 2026: The Cost of the Pivot
First quarter results reflected the full weight of the transition. Revenue of $608 million grew 4% year over year, a steep deceleration from the 59% growth rate the company posted over the prior year.
The net loss of $92 million compared to $50 million in net income a year earlier, driven by $33 million in restructuring charges and the margin impact of exiting the compounded business mid-quarter. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $44 million from $91 million in the prior year period.
Management maintained long-term targets of at least $6.5 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030, and guided for full-year 2026 revenue of up to $3 billion. CFO Yemi Okupe told analysts the company expects to return to profitability in 2027.
Barclays raised its target to $39 with an Overweight rating just days ago, citing alternative data indicating that customer momentum has improved materially since the Novo Nordisk partnership was announced.
What the Valuation Model Says
TIKR’s model targets around $140 per share in the mid case, realized at the end of 2030, implying roughly 296% total return over about 4.5 years at around 35% annualized. The scenario range is wide: the low case lands at around $314, with roughly 29% annualized, while the high case approaches $782, at around 44% per year through 2035.
The mid-case return is driven by a combination of revenue growth compounding at around 37% annually and modest net income margin expansion toward 5%, with very little multiple expansion assumed.
That growth assumption is the central variable: the model requires Hims to execute on the branded GLP-1 distribution ramp through Novo Nordisk, continue expanding internationally after international revenue surged from $7 million to $78 million in a single quarter, and sustain subscriber growth across its core specialties.
Worth noting is that the stock currently trades well above the Street mean target of around $27, meaning the market has already priced in a significant portion of the recovery thesis.
The near-term setup is back-half-dependent, with most analysts expecting H2 2026 to show whether the Novo Nordisk partnership delivers the growth acceleration required by the bull case.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
