Key Stats for Apple Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -8%
- 52-Week Range: $169 to $289
- Current Price: $265
What Happened to Apple Stock?
Apple (AAPL) closed at $265, down roughly 8% over the past week and shedding approximately 5% in a single session on February 13 when a broad tech selloff, triggered by Cisco’s memory-cost margin miss, dragged Apple into its worst single-day drop since the April 2025 “Liberation Day” tariff shock.
Apple’s record-breaking Q1 FY2026 earnings report, delivered January 29, had initially anchored sentiment firmly in the bulls’ camp, with the company posting $143.8 billion in revenue, $2.84 diluted EPS, and $53.9 billion in operating cash flow, all all-time records.
The results were powered by a stunning 23% year-over-year surge in iPhone revenue to $85.3 billion, fueled by the iPhone 17 family’s extraordinary customer demand across every geographic segment, with Greater China alone surging 38% to an all-time iPhone revenue record.
Beyond hardware, the market is actively recalibrating Apple’s identity as an AI-integrated platform company, with the January Google Gemini partnership deal, Apple Intelligence reaching the majority of enabled iPhone users, and Services hitting an all-time record $30 billion reinforcing a narrative that Apple is no longer purely a device cycle story.
Timothy Cook, Chief Executive Officer, stated on the Q1 FY2026 earnings call that “we are currently constrained, and at this point, it’s difficult to predict when supply and demand will balance,” grounding investor attention on advanced 3nm node scarcity limiting Apple’s ability to fully meet the demand that drove 23% iPhone growth.
Longer term, Apple’s dual tailwinds of a structurally expanding 2.5 billion active device installed base and the incoming personalized Siri powered by Google Gemini position the company to accelerate Services monetization well beyond its current hardware supercycle.
Wall Street’s Take on AAPL Stock
The supply-constrained iPhone outlook and the Google Gemini partnership landing within the same earnings window set the stage for Apple stock’s next growth phase, where hardware demand and AI-driven Services monetization converge simultaneously rather than sequentially.
Analysts expect that convergence to show up in the numbers, with consensus forecasting FY2026 revenue of $465.18 billion (+11.8% YoY), normalized EPS of $8.50 (+14% YoY), and EBITDA margins expanding to 35.0%, making the fundamental case increasingly difficult to dismiss.
Wall Street reflects that conviction firmly, with 24 buy ratings and a mean price target of $293.07 as of February 20, 2026, representing approximately 10.8% upside from the current close of $264.58 across 41 estimates.
The target spread remains wide, however, ranging from a bear case of $205.00 to a bull case of $350.00, meaning the outcome of the Gemini-powered Siri launch and memory cost trajectory will likely determine which end of that range materializes.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Even accounting for the AI cost cycle and memory headwinds pressuring near-term margins, a mid-case valuation model prices AAPL at $406 by September 2030, implying a 53.5% total return and a 9.7% annualized IRR from current levels as Services scale and Apple Intelligence adoption compound over the next 4.6 years.
Memory pricing headwinds represent the sharpest near-term risk, with Apple explicitly flagging greater Q2 gross margin pressure from NAND costs and acknowledging limited supply chain flexibility at a moment when demand is outpacing its most optimistic internal forecasts.
With 29 combined buy and outperform ratings against only 2 underperforms and 1 sell, the Street reads the current pullback from the February 13 tech selloff as a buying opportunity rather than a structural re-rating lower.
At $264.58, Apple stock trades below the analyst mean target and well below the bull case, and the fundamental trajectory of expanding margins, record installed base, and an incoming AI-personalized Siri makes the stock look undervalued relative to its long-term earnings power.
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