Key Takeaways
- Iovance shares fell another 11% today after Baird cut its price target to $9 from $11, a day after a 35% drop on updated lung cancer data.
- The trial’s 24.6% response rate across 69 patients matched earlier results, and its 59.1% rate came from a subgroup picked out after the fact.
- Lung cancer is now a narrower, slower path, leaving Amtagvi’s sales to carry the stock.
- Third-quarter results on Nov. 5 are the next test.
Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) sank another 11% today after Baird cut its price target to $9 from $11 and kept its Neutral rating. That target sat below Thursday’s close, after a 35% drop on the lung cancer data.
Same response rate, longer road
On Thursday, Iovance said 17 of 69 previously treated patients with non-squamous metastatic lung cancer responded to lifileucel in its Phase 2 IOV-LUN-202 trial. That 24.6% response rate came in line with the 25.6% it reported in 39 patients earlier.
The standout figure came from a subgroup: of 22 patients with normal KRAS and HER2 genes who smoke or used to, 13 responded, a 59.1% rate.
But Iovance found that group after the fact, so it has to prove it in a new study. That study, POSITILITY, starts enrolling in November.
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Now it’s Amtagvi’s show
That leaves Amtagvi, lifileucel’s approved melanoma version, to carry more of the stock. Iovance’s revenue has grown fast:
Second-quarter revenue hit a record $99.3 million, up 66% from a year earlier. On Sept. 29, Iovance raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $410-$420 million, from $350-$370 million.
Iovance also plans a frontline lung cancer trial, OPTILISM, for 2027. Here’s the cash it has to pay for both:
Iovance had $298 million at the end of June and expects its cash to last into the second half of 2028. It gave that runway in August, before it laid out the two new lung cancer trials. (I wouldn’t be surprised if it padded that cushion.)
Nov. 5 is the next test
Iovance reports third-quarter results on Thursday, Nov. 5.
My take: the market is right that lung cancer just became a longer, narrower bet. But nothing this week touched Amtagvi, and at these prices investors are buying a business that’s guiding to nearly 60% growth. If the quarter keeps sales on pace for that guidance, I think this selloff went too far.
Of course, POSITILITY still has to show that the 59.1% holds up in patients picked in advance, and that’s a long way off.
So what is Iovance stock actually worth?
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