Key Takeaways
- Iovance Biotherapeutics shares fell 31% after updated lung cancer data showed a 24.6% response rate in 69 patients, in line with earlier results.
- The company had promised positive data the night before, setting expectations the update didn’t meet.
- Most responses came from less than a third of patients, a group Iovance will now test in a new, narrower cohort.
- Wall Street’s 2028 sales estimate looks exposed if lung cancer becomes a smaller market.
Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) stock is down 31% this morning after its lung cancer update came in, as its own release put it, “Consistent with Previously Reported Results.”
That’s a tough sell after Wednesday night, when Iovance announced a webcast on “Positive Data” and shares jumped more than 10% after hours. This morning’s numbers undid that and then some.
Same response rate, more patients
Here’s what the updated Phase 2 IOV-LUN-202 data showed, as of an Oct. 14 cutoff:
- 17 of 69 previously treated lung cancer patients responded, a 24.6% response rate, against 25.6% in 39 patients last November.
- Patients with no KRAS mutation responded at 43.3%, against 11.4% for those with one.
- A subgroup with no KRAS or HER2 mutation who smoke or used to responded at 59.1% (13 of 22).
That KRAS split is the uncomfortable part. Patients with the mutation, about half the study, responded at 11.4%, while docetaxel, the chemo these patients typically get, has historically produced 12.8%.
A smaller, sharper lung plan
So Iovance will test the biomarker-selected group in a new cohort, POSITILITY, inside the same trial, with approval in mind. The broader cohorts are finishing enrollment and support a planned filing in 2027.
But that subgroup was found looking back at the data, and it’s under a third of patients. A 59% response rate can make for a better drug in a smaller market, and a new cohort takes time.
TIKR tracks 10 analysts on Iovance Biotherapeutics. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Iovance Biotherapeutics, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Iovance Biotherapeutics’ Analyst Ratings
Wall Street is still counting on growth
Analysts expect Iovance’s sales to keep climbing:
Consensus takes revenue from $264 million in 2025 to $921 million in 2028, and that last step, about 55% in a year, lands around when a lung launch would. I’d expect today’s data to pull some of that 2028 number down.
Iovance traded at about 13x forward sales at Wednesday’s close, and today’s drop takes it closer to 9x. That’s still well above the 1.7x it hit in May 2025.
Lung cancer just got smaller
The market is right to reset its lung cancer hopes. The broad group’s response rate hasn’t moved, and the better one belongs to a narrower group that hasn’t been proven yet. That makes lung a smaller, later market than investors were paying for. At roughly 9x forward sales, I’d wait for the third-quarter report on Thursday, Nov. 5, before buying this dip.
Of course, if that 59% holds up in patients picked in advance, lung cancer could still become a meaningful second act.
So what is Iovance stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Iovance could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
