Key Takeaways
- Crocs shares jumped 18% after a third-quarter beat and its third full-year guidance raise this year.
- HEYDUDE grew 6%, almost all of it from retailer orders.
- Crocs’ North America sales fell 2% while international grew 12%, a split Deckers also reported, as Birkenstock grows in the US with clogs.
- HEYDUDE’s 10%-12% fourth-quarter guide is the next test.
Crocs (CROX) stock is up 18% today after a third-quarter beat and its third full-year guidance raise this year.
The bigger news: HEYDUDE is growing again. But the Crocs brand’s soft US sales match what Deckers Outdoor (DECK) just reported, and Birkenstock (BIRK) is growing fast in the US with clogs.
What exactly happened
Revenue rose 5% to $1.04 billion, and adjusted EPS of $3.69 topped the $3.31 consensus. By brand:
- Crocs: up 4% to $873 million, with North America down 2% and international up 12%
- HEYDUDE: up 6% to $170 million, with wholesale up 14% and direct sales flat
Crocs now expects 2026 adjusted EPS of $14.45 to $14.65, up from $13.70 to $14.00. That puts earnings back on a growth path after a dip in 2025:
HEYDUDE’s turn has an asterisk
CEO Andrew Rees said: “HEYDUDE revenues grew 6%, marking an important milestone as we delivered on our commitment stated earlier in the year to return the brand to growth.”
But the growth came from retailers.
Retailers don’t reorder shoes that aren’t selling. Still, until shoppers buy more from HEYDUDE directly, I’d call this a restock.
Crocs has company in the US
Deckers saw the same split in its quarter to Sept. 30: domestic sales slipped 0.4% while international rose 9%. If retailers are restocking while US shoppers hold back, the holiday quarter will show it for both.
Birkenstock is the more direct rival. Its Americas revenue grew 14% in constant currency in its quarter to June 30, and CEO Oliver Reichert said its “closed-toe share of business continues to expand led by newness in both clogs and shoes.” Its December report will show if it’s still growing where Crocs is shrinking.
TIKR tracks 15 analysts on Crocs. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Crocs, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Crocs’ Analyst Ratings
Still cheap after the jump
Crocs traded at 8.2x forward earnings at the last close, below its five-year average of 8.9x:
At today’s price it’s about 10x, a bit above that average and far below its 21x peak in 2021.
My take: Crocs doesn’t need HEYDUDE to be a hit. Three raises, a growing international business and a share count down 8% since December do the work. Of course, if HEYDUDE misses its 10%-12% fourth-quarter guide, the restock reading wins.
So what is Crocs stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Crocs could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
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