Key Stats for Intuitive Surgical Stock
- Past-Week Performance: +4%
- 52-Week Range: $425 to $604
- Current Price: $494
What Happened?
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) has quietly crossed a threshold that reframes the entire robotic surgery story, as its stock holds at $494.02, just weeks after reporting $10.1 billion in full-year revenue, 20 million cumulative patients treated, and FDA clearance for cardiac procedures on da Vinci 5.
The January 22 earnings report itself moved the needle most sharply, with Intuitive delivering non-GAAP EPS of $2.53 against a Wall Street estimate of $2.26, a beat of $0.27 per share, while adjusted net income of $914 million surpassed the IBES estimate of $815 million by nearly 12%.
Driving that beat was the mechanical strength of a recurring revenue engine, with instruments, accessories, and service revenue reaching $2.3 billion in Q4 alone, representing 81% of total quarterly revenue, supported by 18% global procedure growth and a da Vinci installed base that expanded 12% to 11,106 systems.
Beyond the quarter, the market is visibly re-rating Intuitive from a mature medical device company into a high-growth surgical platform business, as da Vinci 5 adoption accelerates, the Ion platform posts 44% procedure growth, and a new cardiac clearance unlocks a total addressable market of approximately 160,000 procedures annually.
CFO Jamie Samath stated on the Q4 earnings call that “2025 pro forma EPS increased 22%, marking the third consecutive year of pro forma EPS growth above 20%,” contextualizing a free cash flow surge to $2.5 billion from $1.3 billion in 2024 that funded $2.3 billion in share repurchases.
Meanwhile, Travis Steed of Bank of America raised pointed questions on the Q4 call about the cardiac clearance opportunity, signaling that institutional analysts are actively modeling the 160,000-procedure cardiac TAM as a new growth layer sitting entirely outside Intuitive’s existing procedure base.
Looking three to five years out, Intuitive’s simultaneous expansion into cardiac surgery, ambulatory surgery centers via its XiR refurbished platform, and a MIA+ digital subscription model positions it to compound procedure volumes, recurring revenue, and software attach rates in ways that no robotic surgery competitor currently matches.
Wall Street’s Take on ISRG Stock
The FDA’s cardiac clearance for da Vinci 5 on January 26, combined with a Q4 earnings beat and the 20-million-patient milestone, sets ISRG on a trajectory where procedure volume growth, new market expansion, and recurring revenue compounding all accelerate simultaneously.
The fundamental case rests on concrete momentum, with consensus estimates projecting revenue climbing from $10.1 billion in 2025 to $11.5 billion in 2026, a 14.6% increase, while normalized EPS grows from $8.9 to $10.0, representing 12.2% year-over-year earnings growth.
Wall Street stands firmly behind that trajectory, with 16 analysts rating ISRG a Buy, 8 Outperforms, and a mean price target of $609.8 against the current $494.0 close, implying 23.4% upside from current levels across 31 estimates.
The target range reinforces the conviction, spanning from a Street low of $378.0 to a high of $750.0, meaning bulls pricing in full cardiac and ASC expansion see the stock nearly 52% higher while even the most cautious analysts assign meaningful long-term value.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
A mid-case valuation model, built on the same cardiac expansion and da Vinci 5 adoption curve that drove the January earnings beat, prices ISRG at $914.1 with an 85.0% total return and a 13.5% annualized IRR through December 2030.
The primary risk is multiple compression, as the model itself projects a 4.2% annual P/E contraction through 2031, meaning ISRG must sustain double-digit earnings growth just to hold its current valuation, leaving little room for procedural volume disappointments or tariff escalation beyond the 1.2% already embedded in guidance.
At $494.0, trading at a 23.4% discount to the Street mean and with cardiac, ASC, and digital subscription revenue streams not yet fully reflected in estimates, ISRG looks meaningfully undervalued for investors with a multi-year horizon.
Should You Invest in Intuitive Surgical, Inc.?
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