Key Stats for Altria Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 0.5%
- 52-Week Range: $53 to $69.1
- Current Price: $68.98
What Happened?
Altria stock (MO) trades at $68.98, just cents below its 52-week high of $69.10, signaling that the market is pricing in a company successfully navigating the transition from cigarettes to smoke-free dominance while sustaining the cash engine that has funded $100 billion in shareholder returns since 2008.
This Monday, Barclays raised its price target on Altria to $63 from $57, reinforcing a broader Wall Street conviction that the company’s smoke-free portfolio expansion and reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.56 to $5.72 justify a higher multiple.
The core engine powering this momentum is on!PLUS, Altria’s premium nicotine pouch featuring proprietary NICOSILK technology, which earned FDA authorization and launches nationally in March with broad retail distribution targeted by end of the first half.
However, the market is actively re-rating Altria from a pure tobacco yield play into a smoke-free growth platform, as nicotine pouch volumes surged over 40% in 2025 and total equivalized nicotine volumes grew 2.5%, reframing the company’s long-term revenue narrative.
CFO Salvatore Mancuso stated at the February 18 CAGNY Conference that “over the past 5 years, the smokeable products segment has grown adjusted OCI by more than $950 million,” underscoring that the traditional business continues to fund the smoke-free transformation without sacrificing margin discipline.
Beyond Barclays, the broader analyst community has taken notice, with the company’s 52-week range of $52.82 to $69.10 reflecting a 30.8% gain from trough to peak, demonstrating sustained institutional accumulation as the smoke-free thesis gains structural credibility.
Over the next three to five years, Altria’s national on!PLUS rollout, Ploom heated tobacco FDA filing, and $600 million Optimize and Accelerate savings program collectively position the company to compete on growth metrics rather than solely on yield, redefining its standing in the global nicotine landscape.
Wall Street’s Take on MO Stock
With Altria’s national on!PLUS launch set for March, a reaffirmed EPS guidance range of $5.56 to $5.72, and the stock trading at $68.98 just cents below its 52-week high of $69.10, the smoke-free transition is no longer a promise but a measurable inflection point.
Underneath the momentum, the fundamentals hold: EBITDA margins expanded to 63.0% in 2025 and analysts project further expansion to 64.1% in 2026, while normalized EPS grew 5.9% last year to $5.42 and consensus estimates target $5.59 for the full year ahead.
Wall Street currently prices MO at a mean target of $64.42 across 12 estimates, with 5 buys and 1 outperform against 7 holds, though the current price of $68.98 already trades above that consensus mean, suggesting the market is running ahead of formal analyst conviction.
The target range spans $47.00 on the low end to $73.00 on the high end, a spread wide enough to reflect genuine uncertainty around illicit vape enforcement timelines, FDA authorization pace, and how aggressively on!PLUS can chip into Velo and Zyn’s market share.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Reinforcing the on!PLUS launch and Barclays’ February 23 target hike to $63, a mid-case DCF model prices MO at $80.83, implying a 17.2% total return over 4.8 years at a 3.3% annualized IRR, with the high case reaching $92.49 at a 6.2% annual return.
The primary risk is that illicit disposable vapes, which still represent roughly 70% of the e-vapor category, continue suppressing legitimate market growth well into 2027, pressuring cigarette volumes faster than on!PLUS and Ploom can offset the revenue decline.
Given that MO trades above analyst consensus yet below the model’s mid-case intrinsic value, the stock looks fairly valued for yield-focused investors but offers a compelling longer-term setup if the smoke-free portfolio executes on its 2026 national rollout.
Should You Invest in Altria Group, Inc.?
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