Key Stats for ConocoPhillips Stock
- Past-6-Month Performance: 14%
- 52-Week Range: $80 to $114
- Valuation Model Target Price: $155
- Implied Upside: 41%
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What Happened?
ConocoPhillips stock has risen about 14% over the past six months, recently trading near $110 per share as investors reacted to improving free cash flow visibility, lower capital intensity, and continued institutional sponsorship. Shares remain near the top of their $80 to $114 52 week range, reflecting confidence in the company’s capital discipline and balance sheet strength.
The stock moved higher primarily because fourth quarter results reinforced confidence in cash flow durability and 2026 cost reductions.
This week, the company reported production of 2,320,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and generated $4.3 billion of CFO with $1.02 per share in adjusted earnings.
ConocoPhillips returned $2.1 billion to shareholders in the quarter and $9 billion for the full year, or 45% of CFO, while reducing net debt by nearly $2 billion and increasing cash balances to $7.4 billion.
Management guided to about $12 billion in 2026 capital spending and $10.2 billion in operating costs, a combined $1 billion year over year reduction that supports stronger free cash flow conversion in 2026.
Institutional positioning added further support. Fiera Capital initiated a new 27,732 share position valued at about $2.62 million, NEOS Investment Management increased its stake by 46.4% to 149,594 shares worth about $14.15 million, and Beirne Wealth Consulting boosted its holdings by 550.1% to 22,098 shares.
Public Sector Pension Investment Board also raised its position by 3.7% to 269,310 shares, while overall institutional ownership stands near 82.36%, underscoring strong long term sponsorship.
Some trimming occurred as well. Vanguard reduced its stake by 1.1% but still holds 119,842,879 shares valued at about $11.34 billion, Smead Capital cut its position by 7.1%, and Cornerstone Advisors lowered its stake by 34.7%.
CEO Ryan Lance also sold 500,708 shares on December 19 at an average price of $92.50 for about $46.3 million, reducing his personal stake by 60.57%.
Despite selective selling, the combination of improved cost structure, steady production, and disciplined shareholder returns has been the dominant driver behind the stock’s 14% advance.
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Is ConocoPhillips Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 1.4%
- Operating Margins: 24.6%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 17.5x
Revenue growth is expected to remain modest as commodity prices normalize, but the business is shifting toward capital efficiency rather than volume expansion.
The key driver in 2026 is lower capital intensity combined with stable production guidance of 2,230,000 to 2,260,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which supports stronger free cash flow per barrel.
Major projects and cost initiatives are expected to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, including roughly $1 billion of incremental free cash flow annually from 2026 through 2028.
Management also expects its free cash flow breakeven to decline into the low $30 per barrel WTI range by the end of the decade, materially improving resilience across commodity cycles.
Based on these inputs, the valuation model estimates a target price of about $155 per share, implying roughly 41% total upside from current levels.
At roughly $110 per share, ConocoPhillips appears undervalued, with upside in 2026 tied to cost reductions, steady production growth, and sustained capital returns rather than aggressive commodity price assumptions.
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