Key Stats for Intuit Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -18%
- 52-Week Range: $301 to $814
- Valuation Model Target Price: around $410
- Implied Upside: about 34%
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What Happened?
Intuit Inc. stock fell about 18% this week, recently trading near $305 per share as investors reacted to a tougher tax-season update, lower TurboTax expectations, a 17% workforce reduction, and a wave of analyst price target cuts. The market’s concern is no longer just whether Intuit can beat quarterly earnings. It is whether TurboTax can defend its pricing power against H&R Block and lower-cost tax-prep options, while QuickBooks keeps growing against small-business accounting rivals like Xero and Sage.
The stock moved lower because Intuit’s TurboTax outlook came in weaker than expected, raising concerns that the company may need to adjust pricing to defend share among price-sensitive DIY tax filers. Intuit reported fiscal Q3 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 10%, and non-GAAP EPS of $12.80, but TurboTax is now expected to grow about 7% for fiscal 2026, below the company’s earlier 8% to 10% outlook. Management also announced plans to cut 17% of full-time employees, making the update feel more like a business reset than a clean earnings beat.
This week’s earnings call showed why the reaction was mixed. CEO Sasan Goodarzi said “customers buy confidence, not code,” while Intuit highlighted TurboTax Live customer growth of 38%, TurboTax Live revenue growth of 36%, Credit Karma growth of 15%, Global Business Solutions revenue growth of 15%, QuickBooks Online accounting revenue growth of 22%, and total online payment volume growth of 30%.
The company also raised fiscal 2026 guidance to about $21.3 billion to $21.4 billion in revenue and about $24 in non-GAAP EPS, but investors focused more on DIY tax weakness, pricing changes, and whether Intuit’s August AI platform expansion can reaccelerate growth.
Analyst actions reinforced the pressure. BMO cut its price target to $412 from $550, Truist reduced its target to $410 from $500, Barclays lowered its target to $443 from $540, and RBC cut its target to $500 from $600. Director Vasant Prabhu also bought 1,750 shares for about $542,000, and Intuit declared a $1.20 quarterly dividend, but the main takeaway is clear: Intuit needs to prove that TurboTax pricing changes, QuickBooks growth, Credit Karma, AI tools, and cost cuts can rebuild confidence after this week’s sharp selloff.
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Is Intuit Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): around 12%
- Operating Margins: around 42%
- Exit P/E Multiple: around 12x
Intuit’s revenue outlook still points to steady growth, with sales expected to rise from about $19 billion in fiscal 2025 to about $33 billion by fiscal 2030, but the market is now applying a much lower multiple because investors are less confident in TurboTax’s durability.
The business can still produce solid results if QuickBooks keeps expanding inside small businesses, Credit Karma stabilizes, Mailchimp improves retention, and Intuit’s AI tools help lift conversion, retention, and revenue per customer.
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That matters because Intuit is not just a tax software company. TurboTax is the consumer tax-prep business, QuickBooks is the small-business accounting platform that drives recurring revenue, Credit Karma helps Intuit monetize consumer financial products, and Mailchimp gives the company another way to serve small businesses through marketing tools.
The next 12 months will likely come down to three things: whether TurboTax can win back price-sensitive filers without damaging margins, whether QuickBooks can keep growing through higher prices and customer expansion, and whether Intuit’s AI tools create better customer outcomes instead of weakening the company’s pricing power.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of around $410, implying about 34% total upside over a little over 2 years, suggesting Intuit appears undervalued if the company can protect margins while rebuilding confidence in consumer tax growth.
At current levels, Intuit appears undervalued, but the stock needs cleaner TurboTax execution, stronger small-business momentum, and clearer evidence that AI is expanding the platform instead of weakening its moat.
How Much Upside Does Intuit Stock Have From Here?
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- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
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