Key Stats for SoFi Technologies Stock
- 52-Week Range: $13 to $33
- Current Price: $16
- Street Mean Target: $21
- Street High Target: $31
- Analyst Consensus: 5 Buys, 3 Outperforms, 12 Holds, 2 Underperforms, 2 Sells
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $
SoFi Doubles Profit and Sets Loan Records in Q1 2026, Yet Still Trades Near Its 52-Week Low
SoFi Technologies (SOFI), the digital financial services platform that competes directly with legacy banks across lending, investing, and deposits, delivered its strongest quarter in company history in Q1 2026, posting $1.1 billion in adjusted net revenue, up 41% year over year, while net income more than doubled to $166.73 million.
Total loan originations reached a record $12.2 billion, the best single quarter in SOFI’s history, driven by record volumes across all three lending categories: $8.3 billion in personal loans, $2.6 billion in student loans, and $1.2 billion in home loans.
Membership hit 14.7 million, up 35% year over year, with 1.1 million new members added in the quarter alone, also a record.
“The health of our consumer base remains strong. We saw record loan growth in the first quarter with strong demand expected for the second quarter,” CEO Anthony Noto said on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
The beat was real. Adjusted revenue of $1.087 billion cleared the consensus estimate of $1.051 billion among 19 analysts, and adjusted EBITDA climbed 62% year over year to $339.9 million at a 31% margin. This marked SoFi Technologies’ 18th consecutive quarter meeting or exceeding the Rule of 40.
The market’s reaction, however, told a different story.
SoFi Technologies stock fell roughly 12% following the earnings release after management held its 2026 full-year guidance unchanged at approximately $4.66 billion in adjusted net revenue and $0.60 in adjusted EPS.
With macro uncertainty persisting and no Fed rate cuts now expected in 2026, management chose not to flow through the first-quarter upside into raised annual guidance.
For investors tracking SoFi Technologies stock as a growth-versus-guidance story, the unchanged outlook was the headline that overshadowed the results.
Wall Street Holds Its Position on SOFI as the Guidance Discount Widens
The central question facing SOFI stock right now is not whether the business is growing. It is whether management’s caution on 2026 guidance is discipline or conservatism that will resolve into upward revisions as the year plays out.
SOFI stock’s actuals and estimates table makes the revenue trajectory concrete: $1.09 billion in Q1 2026, and consensus calls for $1.12 billion in Q2 2026, $1.20 billion in Q3 2026, and $1.26 billion in Q4 2026, implying around 30% year-over-year growth for the full year.
EBITDA consensus tells a more compelling second-half story. With $0.34 billion in Q1 2026 actual EBITDA and estimates of $0.33 billion in Q2 2026, the back half accelerates sharply, reaching around $0.44 billion in Q3 and $0.48 billion in Q4. That swing implies management is front-loading marketing investment, exactly as CFO Chris Lapointe indicated on the call.
The analyst community remains divided. Among 20 analysts covering SOFI stock, 5 rate it a Buy and 3 rate it Outperform, against 12 Holds, 2 Underperforms, and 2 Sells. The mean price target stands at $21.10, implying around 35% upside from the current price of $15.62. The high target sits at $31 and the low at $12.
The hold-heavy distribution reflects a specific bet: not that SoFi Technologies is broken, but that the unchanged full-year guidance leaves insufficient margin of safety for investors expecting a raised bar.
William Blair analyst Andrew Jeffrey captured this tension on the earnings call, writing that “SoFi uncharacteristically did not flow through first-quarter revenue and EBITDA upside,” while still arguing limited downside at current levels.
What the TIKR Model Says About SOFI Stock
TIKR’s base case values SoFi Technologies at $37 per share, realized at December 31, 2030, anchored to a mid-case revenue CAGR of around 17% and a net income margin expanding to around 19%, with EPS growing at roughly a 20% CAGR over the forecast period.
At $16, the stock sits at roughly 43% of the model’s mid-case target price, and the TIKR framework marks it undervalued on a risk-adjusted basis given the combination of record origination volumes, 41% revenue growth, and tangible book value per share of $7.21 that has grown 57% year over year.
The argument for SOFI stock at current levels hinges on one number: whether the Q3 and Q4 EBITDA margin expansion consensus projects, from 31% in Q1 to roughly 37-38% in the back half of 2026, actually shows up in reported results.
Low Case: $41 by 2035, 12% IRR
- Revenue CAGR of around 15% through 2035, below the company’s stated 30% medium-term target
- Net income margins stabilize near 18%, reflecting competitive pressure in personal loans and tech platform headwinds from the large customer exit
- No Fed rate cuts materialize in 2026, suppressing student loan refinancing volumes below 2025 peak levels
- SoFi Plus and SoFiUSD remain small contributors, with combined revenue below $200 million through 2028
Mid Case: $57 by 2034, 16% IRR
- Revenue CAGR of around 17%, consistent with management’s medium-term growth framework
- Net income margins reach around 19%, supported by operating leverage as non-lending revenue (Financial Services up 41% year over year in Q1) continues scaling
- Loan platform business adds $3.6 billion in new partner commitments per quarter on average, sustaining fee income growth alongside balance sheet originations
High Case: $77 by 2035, 20% IRR
- Two or more Fed rate cuts accelerate student loan refinancing volumes beyond the already record $2.6 billion quarterly pace seen in Q1 2026
- Revenue CAGR of around 19%, consistent with the company’s 5-year historical CAGR of over 35%
- Net income margins approach 20% as SoFi Plus scales toward 1 million subscribers, generating around $120 million in annual subscription revenue with near-zero incremental cost
- Big Business Banking, launched in May 2026 with API-driven fiat-and-crypto capabilities, attracts enterprise clients and opens an institutional deposit channel not yet in consensus
Is SoFi Technologies stock undervalued right now?
TIKR’s mid-case model targets $37 per share by December 2030, implying around 135% upside from the current price of $16.
With consensus EPS growth of around 57% projected year over year for Q3 2026 and the stock trading at roughly 28 times next-twelve-month earnings, the key variable is whether management raises 2026 guidance in Q2 or Q3 as back-half EBITDA margins expand toward the 37-38% range embedded in consensus estimates.
Should You Invest in SoFi Technologies, Inc.?
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