Key Stats for MSCI Stock
- This Week Performance: -4.6%
- 52-Week Range: $486.7 to $626.3
- Current Price: $547.1
What Happened?
Shares of MSCI, the global index and financial data provider whose benchmarks anchor roughly $7 trillion in ETF and investment products, trade near $542 as a record $204 billion in full-year ETF inflows validates the company’s core business at scale.
MSCI’s Q4 2025 earnings delivered revenue of $822.5 million against a $819.8 million consensus estimate, with adjusted EPS of $4.66 beating the $4.57 estimate and capping an 11th consecutive year of double-digit adjusted EPS growth at nearly 14% for the full year.
The engine behind that consistency is the index flywheel: asset-based fee run rate surged 26% to $852 million, custom index subscription run rate grew 16%, and EMEA index run rate, combining subscriptions and asset-based fees, now exceeds the Americas, a milestone that reflects the accelerating rotation of global capital out of dollar assets into MSCI-benchmarked international products.
Henry Fernandez, Chairman and CEO, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “total ETF and non-ETF AUM linked to MSCI indices reached approximately $7 trillion, driven by record inflows into our clients’ ETF products linked to MSCI indices, particularly listed ETF products in Europe,” directly tied to MSCI’s January 27 extension of its BlackRock license agreement through March 31, 2035.
With $3.13 billion in full-year revenue, nearly $2.5 billion in share repurchases completed through January 2026, a March 3 acquisition of Compass Financial Technologies expanding multi-asset index capabilities into commodities and cryptocurrencies, and AI cutting internal equity-model release cycles by roughly 40%, MSCI enters 2026 with compounding structural advantages across every segment of its franchise.
Wall Street’s Take on MSCI Stock
The record $204 billion in full-year ETF inflows and the BlackRock license extension through March 2035 directly accelerate asset-based fee run rate, which already grew 26% in Q4, compounding the subscription base growing at over 9% annually.
MSCI’s forward model shows revenue climbing from $3.1 billion in FY 2025 to $4.7 billion by FY 2030 at a 9.8% CAGR, while normalized EPS grows from $17.28 to $31.59, a 13.7% CAGR that reflects the operating leverage embedded in a 94%-plus retention subscription business.
Sixteen analysts cover MSCI with 9 buys, 6 outperforms, and just 1 hold and 1 underperform, producing a mean price target of $678.31 that implies 24% upside from the current $547 price, with the Street anchoring conviction on sustained ABF growth and private capital momentum.
The analyst target range spans $535 on the low end to $719 on the high, where the ceiling case prices in accelerating private capital solutions adoption and continued international ETF inflow dominance, while the floor reflects execution risk if Sustainability and Climate softness in the Americas deepens further.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case target of $975.47 by December 2030 implies 78.3% total return at a 12.8% annualized IRR, pricing in 8.5% revenue CAGR and net income margins expanding from 42.3% to 43.4% as AI-driven cost reallocation converts operational savings into reinvestment capacity.
The market prices MSCI as a mature data vendor, but EBITDA margins are forecast to expand from 60.8% in FY 2025 to 65.3% by FY 2030, a 450 basis point lift the current multiple does not reflect.
Private Capital Solutions recurring sales grew 86% in Q4, with $16 trillion in proprietary LP-sourced fund data forming a competitive moat that no ambient AI data-collection effort can replicate or displace.
Henry Fernandez stated on the Q4 earnings call that AI is cutting equity-model release cycles by roughly 40%, a direct signal that margin expansion is structural, not cyclical, and accelerating into 2026 and beyond.
The primary risk is Sustainability and Climate revenue in the Americas, where political headwinds are compressing sales, and sustained deterioration there would pressure the $3.46 billion FY 2026 revenue estimate directly.
The May MSCI review of Indonesia’s capital market reforms is the near-term event to watch, as a downgrade decision would test whether emerging market ETF inflow momentum, the core ABF growth driver, can withstand a major index reclassification.
Should You Invest in MSCI Inc.?
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Pull up MSCI stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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