Key Stats for Blackstone Stock
- This Week Performance: -5%
- 52-Week Range: $105.1 to $190.1
- Current Price: $107.3
What Happened?
Blackstone (BX), the world’s largest alternative asset manager with $1.275 trillion under management, now trades near its 52-week low of $105.09 as redemption pressure on BCRED, its $82 billion private credit fund for wealthy individual investors, overshadows record full-year 2025 distributable earnings of $5.57 per share.
Just this March, BCRED disclosed that Q1 redemption requests hit 7.9% of shares, up from 4.5% in Q4, forcing the board to lift the standard 5% redemption cap to 7% and requiring Blackstone and its employees to inject $400 million of their own capital to honor all withdrawal requests.
Despite the redemption surge, BCRED’s underlying credit quality remains intact, with Blackstone’s $160 billion-plus direct lending portfolio posting realized losses of just 11 basis points over the last 12 months and borrower EBITDA growing at high single digits annually.
CFO Michael Chae stated at the Bank of America Financial Services Conference on February 10 that “over 2 decades in private credit, we’ve delivered annualized realized losses of 0.1%,” grounding the redemption crisis as a sentiment event rather than a credit quality deterioration.
Blackstone enters the next 3 to 5 years with nearly $200 billion in dry powder, five new private equity drawdown funds targeting over $50 billion collectively expected to be fee-earning by year-end, and a $300 billion private wealth platform that grew 3x in five years before the current dislocation.
Wall Street’s Take on BX Stock
The BCRED redemption surge that drove BX to its 52-week low creates a disconnection: the stock trades 44% below its peak while the firm’s fee-earning engine, driven by $1.275 trillion in AUM and record 2025 distributable earnings of $5.57 per share, remains fully intact.
Blackstone’s free cash flow, the clearest measure of how much capital the firm actually generates after running its asset management operations, is estimated to nearly double in 2026 to $8.83 billion from $4.55 billion in 2025, expanding the FCF margin from 34.8% to 55.9%.
The TIKR mid-case model prices BX at $179.09 by December 2030, implying 67% total return or 11.2% annualized from the current price of $107.25, anchored to mid-case revenue CAGR of 11.9% and a net income margin holding above 42%.
Wall Street remains broadly constructive despite the selloff: 8 buys, 4 outperforms, 10 holds, and no sells across 23 estimates, with a mean price target of $162.21, implying 51.2% upside from the March 11 close of $107.25.
The target spread runs from $122.00 on the low end to $215.00 on the high, with the bear case tied directly to whether BCRED redemptions persist and compress fee-related performance revenues, and the bull case hinging on the five new PE drawdown funds totaling over $50 billion becoming fee-earning by year-end.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR model’s 94.2% FCF growth assumption for 2026 is not speculative: it reflects the activation of those five drawdown funds, continued insurance AUM growth that ran 18% in 2025, and the realization pipeline accelerating as IPO and M&A activity recovers.
The market prices BCRED’s $1.7 billion of net Q1 outflows as a structural threat, but Blackstone’s direct lending portfolio posted realized losses of just 11 basis points over the last 12 months.
Even during peak redemption pressure, BCRED pulled in over $800 million in gross inflows per month in the last two months of Q1, confirming that distribution demand for the product has not collapsed.
If BCRED redemptions accelerate beyond 7.9% for a second consecutive quarter, the fee-related performance revenue line compresses and the FCF inflection the TIKR model assumes in 2026 gets pushed out materially.
Q1 2026 earnings will be the first clean read on whether the FCF inflection is tracking: watch fee-related earnings per share against the $1.25 Q4 2025 baseline, and whether BCRED gross sales hold above $2 billion.
Should You Invest in Blackstone, Inc.?
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