Key Stats for McDonald’s Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 0.5%
- 52-Week Range: $283 to $336
- Current Price: $335
What Happened to McDonald’s Stock?
McDonald’s (MCD) stock is sitting at all-time highs at $335 after Wall Street rewarded the company’s Q4 global comparable sales surge of 5.7%, driven by the record-breaking Grinch Meal campaign and the successful Extra Value Meals relaunch across U.S. restaurants.
Reinforcing that momentum, Viking Global raised its McDonald’s stake by 7.2% to 3.6 million shares as of December 31, signaling that one of Wall Street’s most respected institutional players is actively building conviction in the brand’s value-driven recovery.
Underlying that institutional confidence, McDonald’s U.S. comparable sales jumped 6.8% in Q4, powered by positive guest count growth, nearly 500 million MONOPOLY games played digitally, and the highest single-day sales record in the company’s history during the Grinch Meal promotion.
Also, the market is actively re-rating McDonald’s from a defensive consumer staple into a high-velocity digital and loyalty platform, as its 210 million active loyalty users now generate nearly $37 billion in annual systemwide sales across 70 markets.
CEO Christopher Kempczinski stated on the Q4 earnings call that “McDonald’s is not going to get beat on value and affordability,” anchoring investor confidence as the company simultaneously gains low-income consumer share while preparing a premium beverage lineup under the McCafe brand for 2026.
Adding further institutional weight, Viking Global’s latest SEC filing confirmed its expanded 3.6 million share position in McDonald’s, underscoring professional conviction in the stock just days before the company’s strong earnings reaction lifted shares above $334.
Looking ahead, McDonald’s stock aggressive target of 50,000 restaurants by end of 2027, combined with its 250 million loyalty user goal and new McCafe beverage category, positions the company to command a structurally larger share of the $100 billion-plus global beverage and QSR markets over the next three to five years.
Wall Street’s Take on McDonald‘s Stock
That Q4 momentum, anchored by a 6.8% U.S. comp sales beat and the highest single-day sales record in company history, sets McDonald’s on a clear path toward accelerating systemwide sales growth as its McCafe beverage launch and expanding loyalty base unlock new revenue streams in 2026.
Street estimates reinforce that trajectory, with analysts projecting revenue to climb from $26.9 billion in 2025 to $28.6 billion in 2026, while normalized EPS grows 8.2% to $13.2, reflecting a business model that is compounding earnings with increasing structural efficiency.
Therefore, Wall Street stands firmly behind the Golden Arches, with 17 buy ratings and a mean price target of $340.7 as of February 23, sitting roughly 1.8% above the current $334.6 close, suggesting analysts see near-term upside even after the post-earnings rally.
Nevertheless, the target range tells a more compelling story, with the Street’s high target reaching $380.0 against a low of $250.0, meaning conviction bulls see 13.6% upside from current levels while skeptics price in meaningful downside risk tied to franchisee margin pressure and macro softness.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Building on that institutional conviction, a mid-case valuation model prices MCD at $463.1 by December 2030, implying a 38.4% total return and a 6.9% annualized IRR, a projection underpinned directly by McDonald’s accelerating restaurant openings, loyalty-driven traffic gains, and the untapped $100 billion global beverage opportunity.
The primary risk, however, remains margin compression at the franchisee level, as McDonald’s EVM price-point support rolls off in 2026, leaving franchisees to independently sustain value-driven traffic gains in a QSR industry environment management itself describes as persistently challenging.
At $334.6, McDonald’s trades at roughly 101.8% of its mean analyst target, making it fairly valued near-term but structurally undervalued for patient investors who believe the loyalty flywheel, beverage expansion, and global unit growth will compound meaningfully toward that $463.1 mid-case price over the next five years.
Should You Invest in McDonald’s Corporation?
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