Key Takeaways:
- Danone is reshaping its portfolio around higher‑growth, higher‑margin categories like Specialized Nutrition and premium water, while exiting non‑core assets and reinvesting in innovation and marketing to support sustainable growth.
- BN stock could reasonably reach €94 per share by December 2029, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 20.8% from today’s price of €67, with an annualized return of 4.9% over the next 4.0 years.
Danone S.A. (BN) is a global food and beverage group with strong positions in essential dairy and plant‑based products, specialized nutrition, and bottled water, giving it diversified exposure to everyday consumer staples across developed and emerging markets.
Here’s why Danone stock could provide steady but moderate returns through 2029 as it leans on its global brand portfolio, cost‑efficiency initiatives, and disciplined capital allocation while operating in a relatively defensive consumer staples sector.
What the Model Says for Danone Stock
We analyzed the potential return profile for Danone stock using valuation assumptions grounded in its recent revenue trends, profitability trajectory, and current market valuation multiples. The model incorporates Danone’s focus on improving operating efficiency, managing input‑cost inflation, and maintaining a balanced capital allocation policy with dividends and buybacks while continuing to invest in growth categories.
Based on estimates of 2.4% annual revenue growth, 14.0% operating margins, and a normalized P/E multiple of 18.7x, the model projects Danone stock could rise from €67 to €86 per share by December 2027.
That would be an 11.5% total return, or a 5.7% annualized return over the next 2.0 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Danone stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 2.4%
Danone’s revenue has been relatively stable over the past decade, with a 10‑year CAGR of around 2.6%, while the most recent year showed a slight decline as volumes adjusted after strong pricing actions and portfolio changes.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we assume a 3.0% annual growth, which is slightly ahead of long‑term history and reflects modest volume recovery, continued pricing discipline, and an improving mix from higher‑value segments rather than aggressive expansion.
2. Operating Margins: 14.0%
Danone has historically delivered solid profitability, with operating margins supported by strong brands and scale but pressured at times by input‑cost spikes and restructuring efforts.
The company has been implementing productivity programs and portfolio optimization, and the model assumes that these initiatives can help maintain around 14.0% operating margins over the next few years rather than drive a step‑change higher.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, a 14.0% margin assumption therefore balances ongoing cost‑efficiency benefits with persistent cost inflation, promotional intensity, and the need to protect volumes and market share.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 18.7x
Danone stock currently trades at a P/E multiple close to 18‑19x, which is broadly in line with many global consumer staples peers given its stable cash flows, solid dividend, and defensive profile.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we use an 18.7x exit multiple, assuming the market continues to value Danone as a steady, mature food and beverage company rather than re‑rating it as a high‑growth compounder.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for BN stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on revenue momentum, margin execution, and how the market values Danone’s earnings stream (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Revenue grows closer to 2.7% annually and margins trend toward the low end of management’s ambitions → 6.2% annual returns
- Mid Case: Revenue grows around 3.0% with stable margins near 14.0% → 11.9% annual returns
- High Case: Revenue growth reaches roughly 3.3%, and margins improve → 16.9% annual returns
The model’s mid‑case suggests that Danone offers moderate potential returns, which are below the 10%‑plus level that many long‑term equity investors typically target but still positive for a relatively defensive consumer staples name.
See what analysts think about BN stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
How Much Upside Does Danone Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
