Key Takeaways:
- Cross-Platform Expansion: Only 20% of users access both Mobility and Delivery, yet cross-platform consumers spend 3x more and retain 35% better.
- Price Projection: Based on current momentum, the stock could reach $122 by December 2027.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 46% from the current price of $84.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 21% annual growth over the next 1.9 years.
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Uber (UBER) just delivered its fastest trip growth since 2023 with a 22% increase in Q3. But the numbers only scratch the surface of what CEO Dara Khosrowshahi calls the shift “from trip experience to lifetime experience.”
With Mobility trips accelerating 21% and grocery/retail hitting a $12 billion gross booking run rate, growing significantly faster than restaurant delivery, Uber is executing across multiple growth engines simultaneously.
The company hit a record Halloween weekend with 130 million trips generating over $2 billion in gross bookings.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached an all-time high margin of 4.5% of gross bookings, up 40 basis points year-over-year.
- With partnerships spanning NVIDIA for autonomous vehicles, seamless integration between Toast and Eats, and expanding into AI-powered work through Uber AI Solutions, the platform is broadening well beyond ride-hailing.
Despite strong performance with nearly $9 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, UBER stock trades at $84, offering upside for investors who grasp the company’s platform transformation and autonomous vehicle strategy.
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What the Model Says for Uber Stock
We analyzed Uber through the lens of its evolution from a ride-hailing app into a comprehensive mobility, delivery, and emerging-vehicle platform.
The company’s barbell strategy balances premium products like Uber for Business and Black, while generating higher margins through growth investments in Wait & Save, Moto, and autonomous vehicles.
With only 10% monthly penetration of adults in the top 10 markets and a massive cross-platform opportunity (30% of Mobility riders have never tried Uber Eats, and 75% have not tried grocery and retail), Uber has a significant runway ahead.
Using a forecast of 16.2% annual revenue growth and 14.1% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $122 within 1.9 years. This assumes a 20.8x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents a flat valuation relative to Uber’s current P/E of 20.8x. As the company invests in autonomous vehicle partnerships, expands grocery/retail, and scales Uber AI Solutions while maintaining disciplined margin expansion, the multiple should hold.
The real value lies in sustained cross-platform growth and the transition to a hybrid, autonomous-human driver network.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for UBER stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 26%
Uber’s growth engine operates across multiple vectors, creating compounding advantages.
Cross-Platform Opportunity: Only 20% of consumers in markets with both Mobility and Delivery use both services. These cross-platform users spend 3x more and retain 35% better than single-product users. With 30% of Mobility riders never trying Uber Eats and 75% never trying grocery/retail, the math is compelling.
Sparse Geography Expansion: Suburban and rural markets are growing 1.5x faster than dense urban areas, with only 20% penetration. Products like Wait & Save fit perfectly for sparse geographies that don’t mind waiting for better economics. This strategy is delivering strong results across the U.S.
Grocery and Retail Acceleration: Now at a $12 billion gross bookings run rate and variable contribution positive, grocery/retail is growing meaningfully faster than restaurant delivery. The category is creating new consumers for online food delivery and benefiting from cross-platform dynamics.
Autonomous Vehicle Growth Catalyst: Markets with Waymo deployment (Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta) are growing more than twice as fast as the rest of the U.S. Driver earnings in these markets, like Austin, actually outpace the rest of the country, signaling a healthy hybrid ecosystem.
2. Operating margins: 14.1%
Uber operates with disciplined margin expansion while investing in future growth.
Current Performance: Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin reached 4.5% of gross bookings, up 40 basis points year-over-year with 33% EBITDA growth.
Insurance Savings Reinvestment: Hundreds of millions in insurance savings expected from legislative wins (California reducing coverage limits from $1 million to $60,000 per individual), tech improvements through the Driving Insights dashboard, and commercial negotiations will be passed to consumers through lower fares, driving volume.
Membership Economics: Uber One members (now 36 million and growing) are initially margin dilutive in the first 6 months but become accretive as retention and cross-platform usage increase. The company is deliberately moderating the pace of margin expansion to invest in long-term engagement.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 20.8x
The market currently values Uber at 20.8x earnings. We assume the multiple holds at 20.8x through our forecast period.
Reflects Balanced Growth and Investment: Uber’s P/E has averaged 23.2x over the past year and 2.4x over 3 years. The current multiple reflects a maturing business model with proven profitability balanced against continued investments in autonomous vehicles (currently unprofitable but following the classic Uber playbook) and new growth initiatives.
Quality Premium Warranted: Uber deserves a market multiple due to its 150 million monthly Mobility audience (all-time high), $9 billion trailing free cash flow, global platform spanning 70+ countries, strategic AV partnerships with Waymo and NVIDIA positioning for the hybrid future, and expanding TAM through multiple gig opportunities via Uber AI Solutions.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Platform businesses face competition and execution risk. Here’s how Uber stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2027:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 11.7% and margins compress to around 16%, the stock still offers a 14.1% annual return.
- Mid Case: With 13% growth and 18% margins (our base assumptions converted to net income margins), we expect an annual return of 22.2%.
- High Case: If cross-platform adoption accelerates and Uber maintains 19% margins while growing at 14.3%, returns could hit 30% annually.
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The range reflects different adoption curves for cross-platform usage and autonomous vehicle integration. In the worst case, competition intensifies in Europe, or DoorDash or AV partnerships prove more costly than expected.
In the high case, the NVIDIA Hyperion platform accelerates L4-ready vehicle supply, membership penetration drives deeper engagement, grocery/retail scales faster, and Uber AI Solutions opens meaningful new revenue streams.
How Much Upside Does Uber Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
