Key Stats: GE Vernova (GEV) — Q1 2026
- Current Price: ~$1,128 =
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $9.3B, +16% YoY
- Q1 2026 Orders: $18.3B, +71% YoY
- Total Backlog: $163B (up from $116B at spin)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $896M, +87% YoY
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin: expanded 390 bps YoY
- Free Cash Flow (Q1): $4.8B (vs. $3.7B for full-year 2025)
- FY2026 Revenue Guidance (raised): $44.5B–$45.5B
- FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin Guidance (raised): 12%–14%
- FY2026 Free Cash Flow Guidance (raised): $6.5B–$7.5B
- TIKR Model Price Target: ~$2,861
- Implied Upside: ~154%
GE Vernova Stock Surges After Q1 Earnings: Orders Up 71%, Guidance Raised Again
GE Vernova stock (GEV) jumped 14% on April 22 after the company reported Q1 2026 revenue of $9.3B, a 16% increase year-over-year, while booking $18.3B in orders — a 71% surge that pushed total backlog to $163B.
Adjusted EBITDA reached $896M in the quarter, an 87% increase year-over-year, as adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 390 basis points.
Free cash flow of $4.8B in a single quarter exceeded the company’s full-year 2025 free cash flow of $3.7B, driven by surging down payments tied to accelerating orders at Power and Electrification.
The Power segment was the foundational driver, with EBITDA margins expanding 500 basis points to 16.3%, according to CFO Ken Parks on the Q1 earnings call.
GE Vernova shipped 25 gas turbines in Q1, a 32% increase year-over-year, while Gas Power signed 21 gigawatts of new turbine agreements in countries spanning the U.S., Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil, and Canada, growing total gigawatts under contract from 83 to 100 gigawatts sequentially.
Electrification was the headline growth story: segment revenue increased 61% on a GAAP basis, EBITDA more than doubled, and EBITDA margin expanded 590 basis points to 17.8%.
Electrification orders from data center customers alone in Q1 exceeded the entire full-year 2025 total, according to CEO Scott Strazik on the earnings call, including approximately $2.4B in orders directed at data center infrastructure.
The acquisition of Prolec, completed in early February, contributed nearly $500M of revenue at just over 20% EBITDA margin and added $5B of backlog, which grew 25% since the transaction was announced at Q3 2025 earnings.
Wind remained a drag, with EBITDA losses of $382M in the quarter as lower onshore equipment deliveries and tariff exposure weighed on results, though management reiterated expectations for Wind EBITDA losses of approximately $400M for the full year.
On capital allocation, GE Vernova returned approximately $1.4B to shareholders in Q1, including $1.3B in share repurchases, while investing approximately $700M in combined R&D and CapEx — with R&D growing roughly 25% year-over-year.
Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $44.5B–$45.5B, up $500M from the prior range, and lifted the adjusted EBITDA margin range by 1 point at both ends to 12%–14%, citing Power productivity gains and accelerating Electrification growth.
Free cash flow guidance was raised substantially, to $6.5B–$7.5B for the full year, up from the prior $5B–$5.5B range, reflecting the pull-forward of down payments tied to surging orders and slot reservations.
GE Vernova Stock’s Income Statement Signals a Margin Expansion Story in Progress
The income statement shows GE Vernova stock in a sustained margin-building phase, with gross profit and operating income both advancing meaningfully on a year-over-year basis despite a still-developing Wind segment.
Q1 2026 gross margin came in at 19.1%, compared to 19% in Q1 2025, a modest hold that reflects tariff pressure absorbed largely at Wind, offset by favorable pricing and mix at Power and Electrification.
Gross profit reached $1,782M in Q1 2026, about 17% increase year-over-year from $1,524M in Q1 2025.
Operating income was $180M in Q1 2026, down from $227M in Q1 2025, as the operating margin contracted to 1.9% from 2.8% a year ago.
The year-over-year operating income decline reflects elevated SG&A of $1,298M (versus $1,058M in Q1 2025) and R&D of $304M (versus $239M), consistent with the company’s guided ~30% combined R&D and CapEx increase for 2026.
The more relevant trajectory is the sequential margin build through the back half: Q4 2025 operating margin was 7.4% and Q3 2025 was 5.7%, reinforcing management’s guidance that the highest revenue and EBITDA will come in Q4 2026.
Valuation Model Take
The TIKR model prices GE Vernova stock at a mid-case target of approximately $2,861, implying ~154% upside from the current price of ~$1,128.
The mid-case model assumes a revenue CAGR of 11% (2025A–2035E), a net income margin of 17%, and an EPS CAGR of 17%, with the target realized at December 31, 2030.
The Q1 report materially strengthens the investment case: free cash flow in a single quarter exceeded full-year 2025 levels, orders grew 71%, and management raised every key guidance metric simultaneously.
GE Vernova stock is pricing in significant execution, but Q1 demonstrated the company is currently outpacing the model’s assumptions rather than simply tracking toward them.
The central tension GE Vernova stock creates heading into the back half of 2026: the backlog and orders data are historically strong, but Wind losses, tariff exposure, and a Q1 operating margin of 1.9% remind investors that the earnings power is still heavily back-half weighted.
What Has to Go Right
- Gas Power capacity reaches ~20 gigawatts annualized by Q3 2026 as guided, enabling the second-half turbine shipment ramp that drives the highest revenue and EBITDA in Q4 2026
- Electrification segment sustains its 17.8% Q1 EBITDA margin and continues expanding sequentially as the $39B equipment backlog converts through the year
- Prolec integration delivers on the $3B revenue contribution guided for 2026 while sustaining the 20%-plus EBITDA margin profile reported in the first two months
- Backlog reaches $200B in 2027 (accelerated from prior 2028 expectation) as slot reservation agreements convert and data center demand continues at Q1’s pace
What Could Still Go Wrong
- Wind EBITDA losses of approximately $400M for the full year remain a structural drag, with first-half losses concentrated in orders signed before tariff protections were embedded contractually
- Tariff exposure of $250M–$350M net impact for 2026 remains embedded in guidance but subject to further policy changes, particularly around the Section 232 impacts on Prolec
- Q1 operating margin of 1.9% and a negative 20.7% year-over-year change in operating income confirm that the headline free cash flow strength is driven by working capital timing, not yet by GAAP earnings leverage
- Framework agreements with hyperscalers covering multi-year turbine commitments have not closed as of Q1, leaving long-cycle revenue visibility dependent on order-by-order execution through 2030 slots
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