Key Takeaways
- Fox’s $96-cash-plus-0.9693-share offer for Roku now implies about $157.87 a share, based on Fox’s September 24 close of $63.83, a premium of roughly $4.36, or 2.8%, over Roku’s own $153.51 price that day.
- The Department of Justice issued a Second Request on the merger on September 8, pausing the antitrust clock and pushing the deal’s original first-half-2027 close date into more uncertain territory, with lawmakers separately raising concerns about Fox favoring its own programming on Roku’s platform.
- Street Targets show the median analyst price target has held at $160 since Roku’s fiscal second quarter, and the mean target actually rose from $153.64 to $162.33, but Buy ratings fell from 9 to 6 while Hold ratings climbed from 15 to 20.
- Roku’s own business kept accelerating into the deal, with second-quarter revenue up 21.6% to $1.35 billion and a $675 million 2026 EBITDA guide issued before the company stopped providing outlook while the transaction is pending.
Roku Stock’s Math Against the Fox Deal Just Got a Real Test
On the evening of September 8, a two-line report from Semafor did more to Roku’s stock than a full quarter of beating estimates had. Word spread that the Department of Justice was widening its look at Fox Corporation’s $22 billion acquisition of Roku, and shares fell roughly 2% in after-hours trading before Fox confirmed the next day, in an SEC filing, that the agency had issued a formal Second Request. That filing pauses the merger’s waiting period until Fox and Roku hand over another, deeper round of documents, and it pushed the deal’s already-distant first-half-2027 close date further from view.
It was not a shock that regulators wanted a closer look. Fox is buying the company that runs the home screen on more than half of American broadband households, the screen that Roku’s own executives have described, on earnings calls, as deciding which service gets seen first. Senators wrote to the DOJ asking the same question antitrust lawyers were already circling: once Fox owns that home screen, does Tubi start getting the good real estate that Netflix or Peacock used to get? Roku’s leadership keeps promising the platform stays open and partner friendly. The Second Request is the DOJ deciding whether that promise needs testing before it lets the deal through.
What actually moved is time, not yet terms. Fox is still offering $96 in cash plus 0.9693 of its own Class A shares for every Roku share, a package worth $160 on paper when it was signed in June but one that floats with Fox’s own stock. At Fox’s September 24 close of $63.83, the stock portion is worth $61.87, putting the real offer at roughly $157.87 against Roku’s $153.51 that same day. A spread of $4.36, or 2.8%, for a deal with several more months of federal review ahead, is a modest bet, closer to routine deal friction than a market bracing for collapse.
What Roku’s Analysts Are Really Saying With Their Ratings
The more telling number sits inside TIKR’s own Street Targets table, and it is not the price target.
Roku’s median analyst target has not moved off $160 since the quarter the deal was announced, and the mean target actually climbed, from $153.64 in June to $162.33 by September 23, with the low end of the range rising too. If the Street thought the DOJ’s Second Request put the deal at real risk, that is not where the targets would sit.
The ratings tell a different, quieter story. Buy calls on Roku fell from 9 to 6 over the same window, while Hold ratings rose from 15 to 20, out of 28 total ratings now on the stock, up slightly from 26 in June. Nobody is cutting the number they think Roku is worth. They are simply less willing to stake a Buy call on a stock that trades more on a federal review’s calendar than on its own fundamentals, fundamentals that, on Roku’s last reported quarter, were still growing more than 20 percent.
That leaves the stock caught between two different clocks. Roku’s operating business, still compounding and still not issuing guidance while the deal is pending, argues the wait is worth taking. The DOJ’s clock, running on a schedule nobody outside the building controls, argues for patience over conviction. The spread trading today says the market believes this deal closes, just later than either side originally expected. The document that changes that math is still ahead, whichever direction it points.
Should You Invest in Roku, Inc.?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
