Key Takeaways
- Ford reports third-quarter results after the close on Oct. 28, after a quarter in which its U.S. sales fell 6.6% and General Motors’ deliveries fell about 6%.
- Free cash flow is the number to watch: Ford’s adjusted free cash flow was $220 million in the first half of 2026, against a full-year guide of $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion.
- Dividends took 85% of Ford’s 2025 adjusted free cash flow, well above its own 40% to 50% target.
- The stock trades at 6.6x forward earnings, below its five-year average of 7.8x, which looks too cheap if Ford keeps its cash guide.
Ford Motor (F) reports its third-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, Oct. 28. This time, free cash flow is the number that matters most.
It was a rough quarter for Detroit. Ford’s U.S. sales fell 6.6%, and General Motors (GM) saw its third-quarter deliveries drop about 6%. Both companies’ EV sales fell sharply. Ford’s trucks and commercial vans still have to pay for an EV business that’s losing billions and a dividend that’s been eating more cash than management’s own target allows.
Earnings are the easy part
Ford has raised its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance twice, most recently to $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion in July, after earning $6.0 billion in the first half. (That range includes a $1.3 billion one-time tariff refund booked in the first quarter.) A supplier issue stopped F-150 production from Sept. 24 to 30, but Ford says the hit fits inside that range.
Analysts expect normalized EPS to get back to 2024’s $1.84 this year, up from $1.09 in 2025, and to reach $1.92 in 2027.
Those estimates have slipped a little since the end of September, when the 2026 figure was $1.86. Nothing Ford has said since July points to a deeper cut.
TIKR tracks 20 analysts on Ford. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Ford, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Ford’s Analyst Ratings
Cash is the harder bar
Here’s what the cash has to do:
- Adjusted free cash flow was $220 million in the first half: negative $1.9 billion in the first quarter, then $2.1 billion in the second.
- Hitting the $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion guide means generating about $6 billion to $7 billion in the second half.
- In the third quarter of 2025, adjusted free cash flow was $4.3 billion.
- Ford Credit sent $1.9 billion up to its parent in the first half, more than all of Ford’s adjusted free cash flow.
One quarter’s cash flow can swing a lot with working capital, as those first two quarters show. So whether management holds its full-year guide matters more than the third-quarter figure alone.
The dividend rides on it
On TIKR’s consolidated figures, Ford’s free cash flow has covered its common dividend in every year since 2021 except 2022, when it came in around zero. It reached $12.5 billion in 2025, against $2.4 billion of dividends.
But those figures include Ford Credit’s own cash flows. Ford’s adjusted measure counts only what the lender sends up to its parent. On that basis, free cash flow was $3.5 billion in 2025, and dividends took 85% of it.
The regular $0.15 quarterly dividend cost $1.2 billion in the first half, and Ford skipped its supplemental payout in early 2026. Ford usually declares its fourth-quarter dividend with these results, so Wednesday tests the dividend directly. The good news is that company cash was $22.3 billion at June 30, still above Ford’s $20 billion target.
Model e is the drain. Ford expects the EV unit to lose about $4 billion in 2026, and its EV sales fell 80% in the third quarter. GM’s EV sales dropped sharply too, so the slump is industry-wide. That doesn’t make Ford’s losses any cheaper to fund.
Priced for a fade
Ford trades at 6.6x forward earnings. That’s below its five-year average of 7.8x and well off its 13x peak in January 2022.
My take: the regular dividend is safe for now, and at 6.6x the market already expects Ford’s recovery to fade. If Ford reaffirms its $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion cash guide on Wednesday and declares its regular dividend, the stock looks too cheap. Just getting back to its five-year average multiple would mean about 18% upside on today’s estimates.
Of course, February is the bigger test. That’s when Ford gives its 2027 guidance and decides whether to bring back the supplemental dividend.
So what is Ford stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Ford could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
