Key Stats for Five Below Stock
- YTD price change for Five Below stock: 14%
- $FIVE Share Price as of May. 21: $220
- 52-Week High: $252
- $FIVE Stock Price Target: $263
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What Happened?
Five Below (FIVE) stock is getting attention from Wall Street this week — and the catalyst is an unlikely one: rising gas prices.
- Loop Capital analyst Anthony Chukumba published a note on Tuesday arguing that Five Below is one of the discount retailers best positioned to benefit from higher fuel costs.
- His research found a strong positive correlation between quarterly average U.S. gasoline prices and Five Below’s comparable sales growth.
- In simple terms, when gas prices go up, Five Below’s sales tend to go up too.
The logic makes sense.
- When consumers feel squeezed at the pump, higher-income shoppers start looking for ways to cut back. That often means trading down to cheaper products.
- Five Below, with its focus on value and its appeal across income groups, becomes an attractive destination.
Chukumba noted that Five Below and National Vision showed the strongest positive correlations with rising gas prices among the discount retailers he studied.
On the flip side, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Grocery Outlet showed the strongest negative correlations — meaning higher gas prices actually hurt their sales.
The backdrop for this analysis is the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which has pushed fuel costs higher across the country.
With no clear end in sight, the pressure on consumer wallets could persist for a while, which is exactly the kind of environment in which Five Below stock tends to perform.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Five Below Stock
Five Below stock already has strong business momentum.
- The company just reported its best holiday quarter since going public, with Q4 comparable sales up 15.4% and full-year EPS growth of 32%.
- Revenue for fiscal 2025 surpassed $4.7 billion.
- For fiscal 2026, management guided for 10% sales growth and
- adjusted EPS of about $8 at the midpoint — a 20% increase year-over-year.
- New store openings are accelerating, with 150 net new locations planned for the year.
The company has also been investing heavily in social media marketing, connecting with Gen Alpha and Gen Z consumers in the channels they actually use.
That’s driving both new customer acquisition and repeat visits — two metrics that matter a lot for long-term growth.
Five Below stock isn’t just a “trade down” story. It’s a business that has genuinely improved its execution, its marketing and its product assortment over the past year. The gas price tailwind from Loop Capital is an added potential boost on top of an already improving business.
If fuel costs stay elevated, Five Below stock could find itself in a sweet spot — benefiting from both its own operational improvements and a macro environment pushing more shoppers through its doors.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
