FICO Sinks 27% as Trump Admin Announces Plans to End Its Mortgage Scoring Monopoly

Key Takeaways

• FICO shares fell about 27% after FHFA Director Bill Pulte said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will merge their two mortgage pricing grids into one that includes VantageScore next to FICO Classic.
• Putting VantageScore on the same pricing grid removes the main cost reason for lenders to stay with FICO’s mortgage scores.
• That threatens the high mortgage score fees that have driven FICO’s revenue growth, though no start date or new pricing table has been announced.
• Goldman Sachs cut its price target to $1,322 from $1,548 but kept a Buy rating, roughly double where shares trade now.

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Fair Isaac (FICO) is down about 27% Tuesday (shares currently trading at about $610) after Washington took another swing at its grip on mortgage scoring.

What exactly happened

After Monday’s close, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, whose agency oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, posted on X about the two agencies’ pricing:

• Fannie and Freddie’s two mortgage pricing grids become one
• VantageScore goes on that grid, right next to FICO Classic
• No start date was given

His verdict on the old two-grid setup? It “makes zero sense.”

The real story: one grid

Pricing grids are the tables Fannie and Freddie use to set the fees on a mortgage, based partly on the borrower’s credit score.

Earlier this month, lenders got the green light to use VantageScore. TIKR covered that directive here. But being allowed to use a score and getting priced on it are two different things. As long as the pricing ran on FICO, lenders had a cost reason to stick with FICO. One grid with both scores on it takes that reason away.

That’s a direct threat to the high fees FICO charges for mortgage scores, which have driven its revenue growth. (FICO doesn’t report mortgage revenue as its own line. Its Scores segment was about 59% of fiscal 2025 revenue, and the 10-K says a significant portion of that comes from the U.S. mortgage market.)

Consider the top line…

Revenue grew from $1.32 billion in fiscal 2021 to $1.99 billion in fiscal 2025, about 11% per year. That’s a lot of growth resting on pricing power that just got a lot shakier.

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What’s next

There’s no start date and no new pricing table yet. So we don’t know how the two scores will stack up on the grid, or how fast lenders will switch. There is one early signal. Rocket Mortgage said it will default to VantageScore 4.0 in the fourth quarter on loans headed to Fannie, Freddie and VA, though FHA, jumbo and investment property loans will still use FICO for now.

The stock was already trading under $950 when TIKR looked at the selloff on Sep 21. Today’s drop takes it to around $610, about 74% below its November 2024 peak of roughly $2,370.

The chart ends at Monday’s close of $841. Goldman Sachs isn’t throwing in the towel. It cut its price target to $1,322 from $1,548 but kept a Buy rating. That’s roughly double today’s price.

My view is that the market is doing what it usually does with regulatory risk: pricing the worst case before the details exist. A 27% drop on a post with no start date and no pricing table says investors are treating the fee cut as settled. Maybe it is.

But the question that matters is how many lenders actually switch, and how fast. Until that pricing table shows up, this looks like a real risk to the model, not proof it’s broken.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!