Key Stats for FAST Stock
- Year-to-Date Performance: 15%
- 52-Week Range: $35 to $51
- Valuation Model Target Price: $54
- Implied Upside: 16%
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What Happened?
Fastenal Company stock is up about 15% year to date, recently trading near $46 per share as investors reacted to strong fourth quarter earnings and confident 2026 growth commentary.
Shares are holding near the upper end of their $35 to $51 52-week range, reflecting sustained demand following accelerating revenue growth and improving operating leverage.
The stock advanced after Fastenal reported Q4 net sales of $2.03 billion, up 11% year over year, with net income rising 12.2% to $294.1 million and EPS of $0.26. Full year 2025 sales reached a record $8.2 billion, up close to 9%, while net income increased 9.4% to $1.26 billion.
Active $50,000-plus customer sites grew 14%, heavy manufacturing delivered double-digit growth, and 46.1% of revenue flowed through FMI technology as the installed base expanded 7.6% to about 136,600 devices.
CEO Dan Florness said the company “anticipate[s] double-digit net sales growth in 2026 supported by FMI technology and digital solutions,” reinforcing expectations for continued share gains this year.
Institutional positioning has been active. American Century Companies boosted its stake by 90.7% to 3,590,292 shares valued at about $176.1 million, while Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management increased its holdings by 2.9% to 2,489,806 shares worth roughly $122.1 million. MAI Capital Management raised its position by 514% to 169,840 shares valued near $8.33 million, and Parr McKnight increased its stake by 534.1% to 59,101 shares worth about $2.90 million.
Banco Santander also initiated a new 251,139-share position valued at approximately $12.3 million.
At the same time, some firms trimmed exposure. TD Asset Management reduced its stake by 14.0% to 4,242,963 shares valued at about $208.1 million, DNB Asset Management AS cut its position by 18.6%, and Clearstead Advisors lowered its holdings by 57.9%.
Despite selective selling, institutions collectively own about 81.38% of Fastenal, indicating continued long-term sponsorship as the company enters 2026 with strong operating momentum.
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Is FAST Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 8%
- Operating Margins: 21%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 33x
Revenue has expanded from $6.01 billion in 2021 to $8.20 billion in 2025, and analysts project continued steady growth as Fastenal deepens penetration with large customers and expands its digital footprint.
Nearly half of Q4 revenue flowed through FMI devices, and total digitally enabled sales reached 62.1%, underscoring how embedded Fastenal has become within customer supply chains.
Operating margins near 21% align with the company’s 20% EBIT profile and reflect pricing discipline, supplier optimization, and leverage from a largely fixed distribution network.
Growth in $50,000-plus customer sites, which now account for over half of revenue, supports recurring volume and deeper wallet share, while investments in hub capacity and FMI hardware position the company for further efficiency gains in 2026.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of about $54, implying roughly 16% upside from current levels into 2026, indicating the stock appears slightly undervalued today.
Performance this year will likely be driven by continued double-digit sales growth, onsite expansion, digital penetration, and disciplined cost control rather than a broad macro rebound.
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How Much Upside Does FAST Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
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