Key Stats for EFX Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 10%
- 52-Week Range: $166 to $281
- Valuation Model Target Price: $329
- Implied Upside: 58%
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What Happened?
Equifax stock rose about 10% this week, finishing near $208 per share as investors reacted to stronger-than-expected fourth quarter results, raised 2026 guidance, and renewed confidence in margin expansion.
Shares remain within their $166 to $281 52 week range, but the sharp move reflects a shift in sentiment following earnings and capital return updates.
The rally was driven by earnings outperformance and improved visibility into 2026 growth.
This week, Equifax reported fourth quarter revenue of $1.551 billion, up 9% year over year and above guidance, with EPS of $2.09 exceeding expectations as Workforce Solutions grew 9% and USIS rose 12%, including 33% mortgage revenue growth despite hard mortgage inquiries declining just 1%.
CEO Mark Begor said the company delivered results “well above both our February and October guidance,” while guiding 2026 revenue growth of about 10.6% reported and EPS of $8.50 at the midpoint, alongside more than $1 billion in expected free cash flow.
Positioning data also played a role. Short interest jumped 47.7% in February to 5,345,609 shares as of Feb. 13, representing about 4.5% of the public float with a 1.7 days-to-cover ratio, suggesting some investors had been positioned for weakness ahead of earnings.
At the same time, institutional ownership stands at 96.2%, with Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management increasing its stake by 19.6% to 1,380,012 shares, Generation Investment Management raising its holdings to 2,736,467 shares, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. boosting its position by 27.1% in Q3.
Capital returns reinforced confidence. Equifax raised its quarterly dividend 12% to $0.56 per share, payable March 17, implying a 1.1% yield and a payout ratio near 21%, while management reiterated expectations for strong free cash flow and continued share repurchases in 2026.
The combination of earnings strength, dividend growth, and short positioning helped drive shares higher this week as investors recalibrated expectations for the year ahead.
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Is EFX Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 10.1%
- Operating Margins: 21.7%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 24.1x
Revenue is projected to grow from about $6.1 billion in 2025 to roughly $8.1 billion by 2028, reflecting continued expansion in Workforce Solutions, U.S. Information Solutions, and international markets.
Margin expansion toward 21.7% assumes that cloud migration, automation, and higher mix from analytics, identity, and verification products translate into durable operating leverage.
Workforce Solutions remains the highest-margin segment, driven by The Work Number database, which now exceeds 200 million active records.
Continued employer adoption, deeper integration into underwriting workflows, and Government vertical expansion tied to social service verification requirements support recurring revenue visibility. Growth in TWN Indicator products across mortgage, auto, and card also strengthens share gains in credit file sales.
Mortgage activity remains a key swing factor. Even with the U.S. mortgage market expected to be down low single digits in 2026, Equifax guided to mortgage revenue outperformance through share gains and new product adoption.
AI-driven underwriting models and proprietary data sets also improve predictive lift, supporting pricing power and higher revenue per transaction.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $328.66, implying about 58% total upside over the next 2.8 years.
At $208 per share, Equifax appears undervalued relative to its medium-term earnings power, with future performance tied to verification growth, margin expansion, and continued product innovation rather than multiple expansion alone.
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How Much Upside Does EFX Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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