Key Stats for DaVita Stock
- Past-Week Performance: +4%
- 52-Week Range: $101 to $159.2
- Current Price: $154
What Happened?
DaVita‘s Integrated Kidney Care segment turned profitable in 2025, one year ahead of schedule, reframing a company once dismissed as a volume-dependent dialysis operator into a value-based care platform at $153.98.
On February 3, Barclays raised its price target to $158 from $143, citing 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $14.30, which landed 13% above the Street consensus of $12.65.
DaVita’s 33% projected EPS jump to $14.30 at the midpoint draws from three converging forces: a lower share count, eliminated Mozarc losses, and $2.16 billion in guided operating income for 2026.
Furthermore, CEO Javier Rodriguez even stated on the Q4 earnings call that “we’ve proven there’s a viable business model that is good for our patients, good for the health care system and can generate value for DaVita and our partners,” directly tied to IKC delivering $22 million in full-year operating income.
Looking ahead, DaVita’s $200 million minority stake in Elara Caring positions the company to capture the home-based kidney care market as the over-65 population expands, building a durable clinical and financial moat through 2030.
Wall Street’s Take on DVA Stock
DaVita’s first profitable IKC year and 33% guided EPS growth to $14.30 directly confirm that the earnings acceleration embedded in the 2026 outlook is structural, not cyclical.
The fundamental case rests on normalized EPS jumping 30.3% to $14.05 in 2026 while EBITDA expands to $2.88 billion, sustaining a 20.5% margin despite flat volume assumptions and an ACA headwind.
Wall Street currently shows 1 buy, 1 outperform, 6 holds, and 1 underperform, with a mean price target of $151.71, implying the stock at $153.98 has already passed consensus, suggesting analysts are lagging the actual business recovery.
The analyst target range spans $126.00 on the low end to $190.00 on the high end, with the $190 scenario requiring volume growth to recover toward 2% and the ACA headwind of $40 million to come in below guidance.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case valuation model puts the target price at $243.18, implying 57.9% total return and a 9.9% annualized IRR through December 2030, a gap the current $153.98 price has not begun to close.
The market is pricing DaVita as a volume-challenged dialysis operator, but a 12% mid-case EPS CAGR through 2031 argues for a compounder valuation entirely.
Normalized EPS grew from $9.68 in 2024 to $10.78 in 2025 and is projected to reach $14.05 in 2026, a trajectory the current multiple does not reflect.
CFO Joel Ackerman stated publicly at the TD Cowen conference that the stock’s prior decline “was driven by investors, not by us,” signaling management’s confidence that fundamentals never deteriorated.
However, the $70 million ACA headwind arriving in 2027 could meaningfully compress RPT growth if effectuation rates disappoint, directly threatening the 3% to 7% long-term OI growth target.
The Q1 2026 earnings call will clarify whether the $40 million ACA headwind is tracking at, above, or below guidance, making it the single most important near-term data point for the bull case.
Still, DaVita sits undervalued at $153.98, with a 9.9% annualized IRR model and 30.3% forward EPS growth making the case, while the ACA effectuation rate stands as the one variable that confirms or challenges the thesis.
Should You Invest in DaVita, Inc.?
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Pull up DVA stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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