Key Stats for Expedia Stock
- Past-Week Performance: +3%
- 52-Week Range: $130 to $303.8
- Current Price: $236.3
What Happened?
Expedia Group (EXPE), the online travel platform operating Vrbo (vacation rentals), Hotels.com, and Brand Expedia, posted its strongest B2B quarter on record in Q4 2025, with its business-to-business segment — which sells travel inventory to airlines, banks, and independent agents — growing gross bookings 24% to $8.7B, even as the stock trades 24.7% below its January highs at $236.26.
Reporting February 12, Expedia beat IBES estimates on every key metric: adjusted EPS of $3.78 vs. the $3.36 consensus, adjusted EBITDA of $848M vs. $760M expected, and total revenue of $3.547B vs. $3.419B estimated, pushing full-year 2026 gross bookings guidance to $127B–$129B, above the $125.95B LSEG consensus.
B2C EBITDA margins — the profitability of the direct-to-consumer travel business covering Brand Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo — expanded roughly 6 points to 31.5% in Q4, driven by a 5% cut in B2C direct sales and marketing spend, a metric where rival Booking Holdings has historically operated at structurally leaner levels that Expedia’s CFO has explicitly cited as a benchmark to close.
CFO Scott Schenkel stated at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 3 that “we’ve been double digit for 19 quarters now,” referring to B2B growth, then tied that streak directly to a 10% expansion in listed lodging properties and a record number of active travel agents on the platform in Q4.
Expedia’s 2026 competitive position consolidates around three compounding levers: a $127B–$129B gross bookings target anchored by B2B’s 19-quarter double-digit growth streak, a buyback program that has reduced share count 22% net of dilution since 2022, and an AI-assisted supply onboarding process now 70% faster than prior, accelerating the property expansion flywheel that feeds both consumer and B2B channels simultaneously.
Wall Street’s Take on EXPE Stock
Expedia’s Q4 beat — adjusted EBITDA margins of 24% and B2B bookings growing 24% — confirms that the operating leverage story is real, not aspirational, and sets up FY2026 normalized EPS estimates of $19.26 against a stock trading near its 52-week low range.
TIKR estimates EXPE’s revenue growing from $14.73B in FY2025 to $15.93B in FY2026 and $17.04B in FY2027, supported directly by management’s $127B–$129B gross bookings guide and 19 consecutive quarters of double-digit B2B growth that show the revenue base is genuinely diversifying away from commoditized consumer search.
The EBITDA margin trajectory anchors the entire bull case: margins expanded from 21.4% in FY2024 to 23.8% in FY2025 and the TIKR model projects further expansion to 24.9% in FY2026 and 27.5% by FY2030, driven by the same B2C marketing leverage — direct sales and marketing cut 5% in Q4 alone — that management has already delivered, not projected.
Fourteen analysts rate EXPE a buy or outperform against 24 holds and just one underperform, with a mean price target of $280.76 implying 18.8% upside from $236.26, and while the consensus lags the TIKR model’s mid-case, the direction of target revisions post-March 5 — Bernstein citing an approach to “AI disruption scenario floors” — signals analysts moving toward a more constructive posture.
The analyst price target spread runs from $225 to $387: the low reflects a scenario where AI disintermediation accelerates faster than Expedia’s direct booking mix (currently two-thirds of total bookings) can absorb, while the $387 high prices in B2B compounding through new lines of business including the pending Tiqets acquisition for activities inventory.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case of $466.13, implying 97.3% total return and a 15.3% IRR over 4.8 years, assumes a revenue CAGR of 6.4% and net income margins expanding from 13.8% in FY2025 to 18.0% by the end of the forecast period, justified by the 6-point B2C EBITDA margin expansion already delivered in a single quarter.
The market is pricing EXPE as an AI disruption casualty, but two-thirds of its bookings originate directly with its own brands, insulating it from the disintermediation risk being applied to the multiple.
The TIKR model’s 15.3% IRR is grounded in the same B2C marketing efficiency already in the FY2025 financials: B2C direct sales and marketing fell 5% in Q4 even as B2C room nights grew 9%.
The risk is macro-driven demand softness compressing the $127B–$129B gross bookings guide, which already bakes in caution; if Middle East conflict and oil above $119/barrel suppress consumer travel spending into Q2, the FY2026 revenue growth assumption of 8.1% becomes the first number to crack.
Q1 2026 earnings will be the definitive test: the company guided 10% to 12% gross bookings growth and +3 to +4 points of EBITDA margin expansion, making adjusted EBITDA margin the exact number to watch for confirmation that the structural efficiency story holds beyond the one-time cost tailwinds of early 2026.
Should You Invest in Expedia Group, Inc.?
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