Key Stats for TJX Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -0.3%
- 52-Week Range: $116.4 to $162.7
- Current Price: $159.7
What Happened?
The TJX Companies (TJX), the off-price retailer operating TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods across more than 5,200 stores globally, crossed $60 billion in annual net sales for the first time in fiscal 2026 while posting a fifth consecutive year of 5% comparable sales growth, yet the stock sits near its 52-week high of $162.68 with Wall Street’s fiscal 2027 guidance skepticism creating a potential entry point.
On February 25, Q4 fiscal 2026 results landed well above every key estimate: net sales of $17.74 billion beat the $17.36 billion consensus, adjusted EPS of $1.43 topped the $1.39 estimate by 3%, and the adjusted pretax profit margin of 12.2% expanded 60 basis points year-over-year, all achieved despite late-January winter storms that management confirmed disrupted peak store traffic.
Adjusted diluted EPS for the full year reached $4.73, up 11% year-over-year, supported by shrink expense, which measures inventory lost to theft and damage, returning to pre-COVID levels after two consecutive years of 20 basis point annual improvement, a cost recovery that rivals Ross Stores and Burlington have not yet matched at the same scale.
CEO Ernie Herrman and President stated on the Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call that “availability of quality branded merchandise in the marketplace continues to be outstanding, and we are in a terrific position to flow a fresh assortment of goods to our stores and online this spring and throughout the year,” directly supporting the company’s plan to open 146 net new stores in fiscal 2027 while targeting $2.50 billion to $2.75 billion in share buybacks.
A long-term store potential of 7,000 locations across existing banners, the first Spain store openings planned for spring 2026, a 13% quarterly dividend increase to $0.48 per share, and a buyer network sourcing from approximately 21,000 vendors annually position TJX to compound market share gains well beyond its current 5,214-store global footprint.
Wall Street’s Take on TJX Stock
TJX’s $60 billion revenue milestone and fifth consecutive year of 5% comparable sales growth confirm the earnings compounding thesis: normalized EPS already grew 11% to $4.73 in fiscal 2026 and consensus models it rising to $5.11 in fiscal 2027 and $5.67 in fiscal 2028, with shrink costs back at pre-COVID levels and vendor availability described by management as exceptional.
The February 25 Q4 beat, with net sales of $17.74 billion surpassing the $17.36 billion estimate and adjusted EPS of $1.43 topping the $1.39 consensus, confirms that TJX’s off-price model, where stores sell brand-name goods at significant discounts by buying excess vendor inventory, gains structural momentum precisely when retail competition weakens and vendor surplus rises.
Additionally, TJX’ EBITDA margins is estimated to expand from 13.6% in fiscal 2026 to 13.9% in fiscal 2027 and 14.2% by fiscal 2031, driven by shrink costs returning to pre-COVID levels and merchandise margin improvement the CFO guided on February 25.
Wall Street is nearly unanimous: 16 buys, 3 outperforms, 1 hold, and 1 sell across 21 analysts, with a mean price target of $171.78 implying 7.5% upside from $159.74, a consensus that reflects confidence in TJX’s defensive positioning but also acknowledges the stock’s proximity to its 52-week high of $162.68.
The spread between the $193.00 bull target and the $100.00 bear target reflects two very different reads on fiscal 2027 guidance: the bull case prices in management’s historically conservative 2% to 3% comp guidance being beaten again, while the bear case prices in tariff disruption and consumer spending deterioration compressing the merchandise margin expansion the model depends on.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case target of $203.59, implying 27.4% total return at a 5.1% IRR through January 2031, assumes a 6.2% revenue CAGR and net income margins expanding from 8.8% to 9.3%, a construct directly supported by TJX’s 146 planned net new store openings in fiscal 2027, its first Spain entry this spring, and $2.50 billion to $2.75 billion in annual buybacks compressing the share count.
The market prices TJX as a mature retailer near fair value, but five consecutive years of 5% comps and shrink returning to pre-COVID levels argue that the earnings trajectory is still accelerating, not plateauing.
Pre-COVID shrink levels, a buyer network sourcing from approximately 21,000 vendors at peak availability, and the Spain store launch this spring all validate the TIKR model’s $203.59 target by confirming that margin and revenue assumptions are grounded in operational reality, not projection.
CEO Ernie Herrman confirmed on February 25 that Q1 fiscal 2027 started strong and that buyer teams are being actively slowed down due to surplus merchandise availability, a signal that merchandise margins and inventory turn, the two metrics that drive EPS outperformance, are tracking ahead of the conservative fiscal 2027 guidance.
A sustained deterioration in branded vendor surplus, whether from tariff-driven sourcing disruption or a demand recovery at full-price retail, would reduce TJX’s buying leverage and compress the merchandise margin expansion underpinning the TIKR model’s 6.2% revenue CAGR and 9.3% net income margin target.
Q1 fiscal 2027 results, expected in May, will be the first test of whether the strong start Herrman described on February 25 translates into a comp above the 2% to 3% guidance range; watch the merchandise margin line for confirmation that vendor availability is still flowing through to the bottom line.
Should You Invest in The TJX Companies, Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up TJX stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track The TJX Companies, Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze TJX stock on TIKR for Free →
