Key Takeaways:
- Commvault is executing a strong SaaS transformation through its cloud platform expansion, reaching $1 billion in total ARR two quarters early while driving innovation in identity security and cyber recovery solutions.
- CVLT stock could reasonably reach $171/share by March 2028, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 39% from today’s price of $123/share, with an annualized return of 15% over the next 2.3 years.
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free)>>>
Commvault (CVLT) is setting new benchmarks in the cyber resilience segment through aggressive expansion of its SaaS platform, addressing data protection, identity security, and cloud-native recovery across hybrid cloud and enterprise markets.
Commvault serves enterprise customers globally through its Commvault Cloud platform, spanning data backup, cyber recovery, and identity protection solutions delivered with industry-leading innovation and platform integration capabilities.
Core offerings include hybrid cloud data protection, SaaS backup for Microsoft 365 and cloud-native workloads, Active Directory recovery, Cleanroom Recovery for cyber events, and the Clumio portfolio for AWS environments. The company protects approximately 8 exabytes of customer data in the cloud.
The cyber resilience leader delivered second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 18% to $276 million, with subscription revenue jumping 29%.
It added a record $47 million in net new ARR on a constant currency basis, achieving $1 billion in total ARR two quarters ahead of the original March 2026 target.
Commvault grew SaaS ARR 56% to $336 million (also two quarters early), expanded SaaS customers to nearly 9,000 (up 40% year-over-year), and maintained 125% net dollar retention.
Identity and data security offerings grew by double digits sequentially and accounted for nearly 40% of net new ARR, with Active Directory usage more than tripling year-over-year.
CVLT stock has delivered returns of over 200% to shareholders over the last decade but trades 36% below all-time highs.
Here’s why Commvault stock could provide substantial returns through 2028 as it capitalizes on cyber resilience demand while scaling its SaaS platform across hybrid cloud deployments.
See analysts’ full growth forecasts and estimates for CVLT stock (It’s free) >>>
What the Model Says for CVLT Stock
We analyzed the upside potential of Commvault stock using valuation assumptions based on its SaaS transformation and market expansion opportunities across cyber resilience and cloud data protection.
Based on estimates of 14% annual revenue growth, 20% operating margins, and a normalized P/E valuation multiple of 29x, the model projects Commvault stock could rise from $123/share to $171/share.
That would be a 39% total return, or a 15% annualized return over the next 2.3 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
Estimate a company’s fair value instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for CVLT stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 14%
Commvault delivered a strong Q2 fiscal 2026 performance with 18% total revenue growth and 29% subscription revenue growth. The company raised full-year subscription ARR guidance to 24-25% growth (up 50 basis points) and total ARR guidance to 18-19% growth (also up 50 basis points).
Growth drivers include accelerating cloud migration, with cloud-borne and cloud-bound data growing at over 40% CAGR over the past five years. SaaS customers grew 40% year-over-year to nearly 9,000, while SaaS customers with ARR over $100,000 in ARR grew 55%.
The company’s identity and data security offerings are gaining traction, with Active Directory, Air Gap Protect, Cleanroom Recovery, Cloud Rewind, and ThreatScan collectively representing 40% of net new ARR. Active Directory is on pace to become one of the largest SaaS offerings within just two years.
Management expects the data protection TAM to grow at approximately a 12% CAGR, with the SaaS market growing in double digits and the software market growing 0-2%. Commvault is taking share in both segments, growing software ARR at healthy double digits despite flat market growth.
We used a 14% forecast, reflecting Commvault’s ability to capture cyber resilience demand through SaaS platform expansion while managing the transition from term software to cloud subscriptions.
This balances strong momentum against near-term headwinds from shorter contract durations as customers maintain flexibility during cloud transitions.
2. Operating margins: 20%
In fiscal Q2, Commvault achieved non-GAAP EBIT margins of 18.6%, reflecting increased SaaS mix and integration costs from the Satori Cyber acquisition. For the first half of fiscal 2026, the company achieved 42% on a Rule of 40 basis.
Management guided to full-year fiscal 2026 EBIT margins of 18.5-19.5%, down from prior expectations due to ongoing growth investments and gross margin pressure from SaaS acceleration. Operating expenses remained disciplined at 61% of revenue, consistent with prior quarters.
CVLT targets sustainable margin improvement through several initiatives: leveraging the SaaS platform as the business scales beyond $1 billion in ARR, innovation leadership with first-to-market capabilities in cyber recovery and identity protection, and expanding the partner ecosystem (including BeyondTrust integration for identity security).
We forecast 20% operating margins, reflecting management’s investment phase in fiscal 2026 while recognizing margin expansion potential as SaaS scales and innovations drive platform differentiation. This accounts for the company’s Rule of 40 philosophy, balancing growth and profitability.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 29x
Commvault stock currently trades at an NTM P/E multiple of approximately 31x, reflecting its transformation from legacy data protection to a comprehensive cyber resilience platform and strong SaaS growth trajectory.
Historical multiples show: 42x over the past year, 31x over the last five years, and 35x over the last decade, demonstrating sustained investor confidence despite business model transition volatility.
We maintain a 29x exit multiple given Commvault’s execution capabilities, secular tailwinds from cyber resilience spending, and systematic approach to building competitive advantages through innovation leadership.
Build your own Valuation Model to value any stock (It’s free!) >>>
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for CVLT stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on SaaS adoption and cyber resilience market dynamics (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Cloud migration slows and competition intensifies → 7% annual returns
- Mid Case: Steady SaaS transition and continued innovation leadership → 15% annual returns
- High Case: Accelerated cloud adoption and strong identity security traction → 19% annual returns
Even in the conservative case, Commvault stock offers inflation-beating returns, supported by its hybrid platform capabilities and proven ability to innovate ahead of market needs while maintaining customer relationships across complex enterprise environments.
The upside scenario for CVLT stock could deliver exceptional performance if the company successfully scales its SaaS platform beyond $1 billion ARR while capturing and expanding share of identity security and cyber recovery markets.
See what analysts think about CVLT stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
How Much Upside Does CVLT Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
