Key Stats for Carvana Stock
- YTD Price Change for Carvana stock: 64%
- $CVNA Share Price as of Nov. 21: $310
- 52-Week High: $413
- $CVNA Stock Price Target: $419
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What Happened?
Carvana stock jumped more than 4% today after Wedbush Securities upgraded the online used-car retailer to “outperform” from “neutral” and raised its price target to $400 from $380. That implies roughly 29% upside from Friday’s close.
The upgrade comes after Carvana stock dropped 13% over the past month. Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt believes that the selloff was overdone.
He attributed the weakness mainly to disappointing near-term performance from CarMax, Carvana’s closest peer, combined with broader concerns about the credit market environment.
Despite those worries, Devitt now has more conviction in Carvana’s growth trajectory. The company has been operating remarkably well and is on track to surpass CarMax’s retail sales volume by the fourth quarter of 2026, six months earlier than initially forecast.
In recent quarters, Carvana was trailing CarMax’s unit sales by about 45,000 vehicles, but that gap is closing fast.
CEO Ernie Garcia recently outlined the company’s ambitious goal of selling 3 million retail vehicles annually over the next 5 to 10 years.
Currently, Carvana is running at about 600,000 units per year. Hitting that 3 million target would give the company roughly 7.5% of the 40 million-annual used-car market.
Wedbush now expects Carvana to reach that milestone by 2033.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About CVNA Stock
The surge in Carvana stock suggests investors are buying into the company’s operational progress and long-term growth story.
Garcia explained during a recent conference that the company has been growing at about 40% annually over the past few quarters, driven by strong execution across its inspection centers and reconditioning facilities.
What makes this growth impressive is how operationally intensive Carvana’s business model is. The company mostly buys cars from customers and auctions, puts about $1,000 in parts and labor into each vehicle, photographs it, handles financing approvals, delivers the car, and manages title and registration. Scaling that complex system while maintaining quality isn’t easy.
Garcia emphasized that Carvana’s market share gains appear to be broad-based across the fragmented used car market rather than concentrated against any specific competitors.
With only about 10% of the automotive retail market publicly traded, Carvana is taking share from thousands of small dealers who don’t appear in quarterly reports.
Carvana is also making smart investments in AI across its operations. From chatbots to internal modeling tools that can generate predictive models 100 times faster than before, AI is boosting productivity throughout the organization.
Garcia noted that developer productivity has materially increased over the past six months across all metrics.
On the credit front, while some investors remain anxious, Carvana’s data suggests the picture is better than the prevailing narrative.
The company tightened credit standards in late 2023 and early 2024, and its 2024 and 2025 loan vintages are performing well.
Management believes consumer credit quality is actually stronger than what many headlines suggest.
For investors, today’s move in Carvana stock reflects confidence that the recent pullback was an overreaction.
The company is currently operating at low double-digit EBITDA margins and has visibility to reach its target of 13.5% margins.
With continued operational improvements, expanding inventory pools through its ADESA integrations, and strong unit growth, Carvana appears positioned to maintain its momentum despite near-term market concerns.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
